The National Hurricane Center is closely monitoring two disturbances over the tropical Atlantic, however, what was known as Disturbance 1 has now been upgraded to Potential Tropical Storm 5 as of 5 p.m. AST this evening.
This system is currently a broad area of low pressure producing clusters of showers and thunderstorms more than 1,135 miles (1825 kilometers) east-southeast of the Windward Islands.
With the NHC 8 p.m. Intermediate update, it appears that the system is organizing quickly, and is expected to become Tropical Storm Elsa later tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is moving to the west-northwest at 21 mph (33 kph), with winds of 35 mph (55 kph) and a Minimum Central Pressure of 1008 MB… 29.77 inches.
Tropical storm watches have been issued for parts of the Windward Islands, including Guadeloupe, St. Vincent, and the Grenadines, St. Lucia, Barbados, and Martinique, reports Weather.com. This means tropical storm conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) are possible in these areas within the next 48 hours.
Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches are possible in the Windward and the southern Leeward Islands Friday. This could lead to flash flooding and mudslides.
There are still a number of factors that need to come into play before any longer-range forecasts are made. One factor is how much wind shear will be in place as the storm tracks through the eastern and central Caribbean Sea.
Wind shear, or unfavorable upper-level winds, can tear apart tropical systems. Right now, wind shear in the Caribbean is sort of moderate, which is typical for this early in the hurricane season. However, some forecast guidance is indicating wind shear could relax some by this weekend.
Another factor is how much interaction there will be if the storm goes over land, and with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and/or Cuba in its projected path, this would weaken the system.
Bottom line – It is just too early to know whether this system could eventually affect the continental United States, including Florida. We will be giving updates as they come out.
