A full scale model of the experimental Ingenuity Mars Helicopter
In The Atlantic, Shannon Stirone makes a very clear, very negative, case for not getting too starry-eyed about Mars as a destination. Stirone isn’t the only one. Most people who’ve been looking long and hard at Mars would agree with just about all the arguments made, but not necessarily the “don’t bother” theory. Many, including me, would disagree that it’s “a ridiculous way to help humanity”, though.
Current news about Mars is a predictable collection of new information and theory. It’s not exactly an indicator of anything much. What it does provide, however, is a play-by-play range of information about what Mars might be in the future. The usual story with this level of information is that not-currently-wrong misinformation and ideologically biased disinformation mix with the real info to create a very blurry picture.
The case against colonization
Panoramic View From ‘Rocknest’ Position of Curiosity Mars Rover:
A mosaic of images taken by the Mast Camera on NASA Mars rover Curiosity while the rover was working at a site called “Rocknest” in October & November 2012.
A mosaic of images taken by the Mast Camera on NASA Mars rover Curiosity while the rover was working at a site called “Rocknest” in October & November 2012.
Image Credit: NASA/JPL-Caltech/Malin Space Science Systems
There’s a lot wrong with Mars as a tourist destination:
• Dangerous levels of radiation
• Extreme cold
• Lack of readily available resources
• Continuous unpredictable risks at all levels of occupation
• Low oxygen
• Low gravity
• A lot of new and difficult science is required for habitation, let alone terraforming, which is likely to be extremely complex and lengthy.
• The need for a portable Earth ecosystem for basic survival of anyone on Mars
• Probably extremely tricky electrostatic and omnipresent microdust
• Extreme range and times from Earth, most of the time
• Unknown, fundamentally alien, and quite possibly toxic chemistry
• Astonishingly difficult logistics to support a base, let alone a colony
• The basic economics of operating a real Mars colony are staggeringly complex. A simple example – What productive operations would make a Mars colony economically viable? This is no guessing game; it’s literally the basis of the future.
Each one of these points is entirely correct, but each has a working answer, like the extensive, sealable caves on Mars for habitation. It’d take thousands of words to cover all points, but they’re all coverable to a credible level. This overall situation comes with a lot of technical and practical baggage. The many solutions required can’t be easy, and with current levels of even theoretical technology, they’re still hard.
The strategic situation for space exploration
Elon Musk’s vision of a Mars Colony
SpaceX
Nor is the future likely to be any simpler than the present in terms of human needs. The probability is this the scatterbrain government and absurd resources management will continue until totally overrun by irrefutable solutions to real needs. The logic that needs to go away, and fast, is the logic that keeps idiotic obsolete fossil fuels operating doing idiotic obsolete things, enforcing poverty and screwing the planet, for example. That sort of thinking can’t survive at all if humanity intends to survive.
This is one of the reasons I don’t get starry-eyed about space exploration myself. Making a virtue of a necessity is transparently stupid and superficial. Making a necessity of a virtue is just plain dangerous. What if you’re not all that virtuous? Medals to be awarded after practical successes, not before.
The current version of hopelessly, stupidly, insanely, criminally mismanaged Earth is no guide to the future, thankfully. Rational economics and planning have to take over at some point. Rational logic says use space for resources and science. Irrational logic says doing nothing and staying in a hellhole is somehow better. It isn’t, and it can’t be.
The strategy of space exploration at the moment is above all the best way to get from A to B. Space mining and other hobbies or not, the ability to move around and conduct any operations at all in the Solar System require support systems, and those supports can’t all be on Earth. Robots can do a lot of the work, in fact nearly all of the non-human-required stuff, even now.
That, however, doesn’t begin to cover the issues. There’s a need for situational management and responses to anything from rogue asteroids to managing off-Earth operations. Practical management simply can’t be done from Earth. Even if it could, it’d still be much slower in real time.
There are no other places to go. Venus is out of the question; machines couldn’t survive there. Asteroids are way too quirky in orbits and size, and have all of the problems of Mars anyway. (Imagine dozens of asteroid bases, and trying to deal with anything that affects them from Earth.)
We’re just lucky anything at all is there to try to colonize. Try the homebuying logic:
• It’s closer to everything than anything else.
• It’s in mint condition, just needs a little work.
• DIY will have to be the core skill sets for on-Mars operations.
• Mars can generate a huge return on investment in science alone.
• Martian resources will be economically usable for Earth.
• EVERYTHING done in space and on Mars has to be super-efficient to survive. The irresponsible sloppiness we take for granted on Earth can’t work in space. That alone is a key indicator of a good overall idea.
At least we have some idea of how to manage the problems, although the first generations of residents are likely to have to deal with Mars on an atom-by-atom basis.
Why the “Earth First” logic doesn’t work
NASA released a full year of data on ocean salinity. The ocean salinity has been tracked since December 2011 using satellite Aquarius. It showed shifts in salinity and NASA hope to find how the ocean’s salinity affects climate change
NASA/GSFC/JPL-Caltech
However –
Most current personal and domestic technologies have their roots in the early space program. Whether it’s your “devices” or your transport, all the electronics, materials, communications, etc. come from that generation of tech. Future tech is already looking much more impactful on equally fundamental levels. You don’t uninvent the wheel and fire simply because they’re problems you’re too lazy to solve.
Earth’s resources are under far too much strain. Inexcusable inefficiencies, ridiculously unsustainable vast populations, and hideously mismanaged industries are the problems. Imagine if people didn’t “have to” burn down vast areas of rainforest or destroy environments to make their stupid palm oil, do their prehistoric fracking, etc. In space, all you need IS space. Bring the environment, set it up, and produce whatever it is to your imbecilic content. You could have freestanding food production, and even impoverished robot outworkers for the fashion sector, if you’re that nuts.
Space development can get and keep a lot of these hyper-destructive things off Earth, which is where they belong. You could produce the most wonderfully toxic crap in space, without putting the entire human race at risk.
When a single challenge brings multiple gigantic rewards
I’m not going to paraphrase JFK. Mars isn’t just “hard”; it’s damn near impossible, but it IS doable. To beat all the challenges will require a fantastic level of human advancement. The technologies of simply moving things around must improve drastically to get to Mars and make it work. The basic living systems could be adapted to create safe, clean, living spaces on Earth. Quality of life could rise from current sewer-like levels to acceptable, and quickly.
Idealism is a luxury. Practical achievements are priceless. Humanity has a bad habit of getting correct answers from asking the wrong questions. Many things aren’t so much “discovered” as “tripped over” in all areas of science and economics. Mars is a huge question right now.
This is one of the few cases where the right answers are all positives. Let’s not miss the opportunity. …And while you’re at it, clean up that orbiting junk pile around Earth. It’s in the way of the future and needs to be out of the way, ASAP. It’s mop and bucket time, guys, as well as “Fetch!” time. Stirone isn’t wrong; it’s the fact that all those issues are right that needs to be addressed.
