US acts provocatively and may end up in war with Iran
Trump sends troops, warships, and bombers close to Iran as top US officials talk up the possibility of attacking Iran. Some analysts claim that the US is closer to war with Iran than any time since Trump took over as president.
As shown on the appended video, the US has provoked Iran by withdrawing from the nuclear treaty that had been worked out after years of negotiation with several countries. The US subsequently has imposed sanctions on Iran that it also attempts to impose on any other country dealing with Iran even though no other countries are bound by US laws.
US provokes Iran and then provokes further anticipating Iran reactions to their provocations
The US provokes Iran thinking that their provocations will provoke a reaction from Iran. The US then provokes Iran even more by actions that the US claims are threats from Iran. The US in fact hopes that its own provocations create a response that can then be used as an excuse to attack Iran. Israeli intelligence helps out with narrative by providing information that Iran is planning actions in response that threaten the US. Israel is a powerful opponent of Iran and sides with any provocation of Iran by the US.
Some analysts think that Iran will react to US provocations. Ali Vaez an Iran analyst with the International Crisis Group said: “We’ve been hearing from the Saudis and the Emiratis that they expected to see Iranian escalation either in Yemen or the Red Sea to put pressure on their oil exports to Europe,” said Ali Vaez, an Iran analyst with the International Crisis Group.. “Iraq is where [the Iranians] feel most comfortable, and there are a lot of options for targeting U.S. assets.”
Latest provocation of the US
The US has recently declared the Iranian Revolutionary Guard a key component of Iranian armed forces as a terrorist organization. The US is hoping that this action will prompt some Iranian counter-action and is one of the reasons for building up troops etc. The US may hope that Iran will act to provoke it and provide further justification for US actions against Iran.
This is all no doubt sensible policy to hawks within the Trump administration. The US actions could end up being involved in a war that few except hawks such as Bolton and Pompeo want.
Alex Vatanka, senior fellow at the Middle East Instituted said: “I don’t think either side wants to go to war, but this is the kind of brinksmanship that could get out of hand.”
