Recent CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godpole gives his regular analysis at CoinDesk update last at 11:57 UTC. Godpole claims that Bitcoin appears vulnerable to modest slippage during the next 24 hour after it has consistently failed to pass a key moving average (MA) hurdle. This could embolden the bears.
The price has been moving within a relatively narrow sideways drift during recent days. The 50-day exponential moving average (EMA) of $6,649 has been difficult to break through since last Saturday. BTC’s inability to break through this hurdle shows that the bullish trend providing a recovery from the Sept. 19 low of $6,100 has lost its steam. The way is now clear for the bears to drive the price down to $6,300.
When the article was posted, BTC was trading on Bitfinex at $6,580.
Chart analysis
The daily chart shows the 50-day moving average (EMA) has capped any upside to the BItcoin price since late September. Bitcoin is now trading below three major MAs, the 50-day, 100-day and 200-day EMAs, This could be interpreted as a bearish sign. However, the averages are flatlined, showing that BTC lacks any ckear directional bias so far and for far too long. A big move in one direction or the other is long overdue but as yet so no signs of its coming.
On the four hour chart BTC is trading just below the lower edge of the ascending triangle showing the failure of the bulls to break through the 50-day exponential moving average is starting to prove costly. This bad news is compounded by the fact that the relative strength index (RSI) has fallen also into bearish territory below 50. If the next 4-hour candle closes below the triangle support the price of Bitcoin could quickly fall below $6,328 the Sept. 28 low.
The CoinDesk outlook
Based on his technical analysis Godpole claims: “BTC’s persistent failure to move past the 50-day EMA could end up yielding an ascending triangle breakdown on the 4-hour chart. An ascending triangle breakdown, if confirmed, would open up downside towards the immediate support of $6,328 (Sept. 28 low). A violation there would expose the next support, lined up at $6,100. On the higher side, acceptance above the 50-day EMA of $6,649 would put the bulls back in a commanding position.”
Present situation
Though mostly moving sideways, BTC did drift down today and ended up over $70 dollars below its open. Nevertheless it still closed above $6,500 but barely at $6,506. It is now October 3rd UTC. BTC has dropped below the $6,500 level reaching a low of $6,459 so far. At 03:16 UTC Bitcoin was trading at $6,474 still below $6,500 but not reaching the lower level of $6,328 so no sign as yet of a break to the downside. Perhaps later in the day there will be a big move. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
