The Tampa Bay Rays have always had to do business in a limited financial capacity. It has cost them one of the game’s best managers in Joe Maddon, one of the game’s best executives in Andrew Friedman and one of the game’s best pitchers in David Price. Without them, the Rays finished 80-82 last season and struggling to score runs and close out games.
According to Fangraphs, from 2008-2013 no player produced a higher WAR than Rays third baseman Evan Longoria. During that stretch, his average slashline was .275/.357/.512. In 2014, he slugged a career worst .404. Last season that number was .435 which would be the worst of his career if not for the previous season. The Rays rely on Longoria’s production more than any other player to one team in all of baseball. When he struggles, the team can’t win.
The Rays would have been a lot worse if not for a breakout season from Logan Forsythe. Known for his versatility, Forsythe took on a Ben Zobrist-like role but became so productive, he solidified an everyday role as the team’s second baseman and cleanup hitter. Kevin Kiermaier also put himself on everyone’s radar but did so more by winning a Gold Glove in center field than producing at the plate.
The starting rotation was also dealt numerous blows as the team’s ace, Alex Cobb, was lost to Tommy John surgery and both Drew Smyly and Matt Moore were each limited to just 12 starts. The Rays were able to overcome those blows thanks to a huge year from Chris Archer. Archer finished in the top six in the AL in ERA, strikeouts and innings as well as fifth in Cy Young voting.
What the Rays could not overcome was their bullpen struggles. Brad Boxberger finished the season with 41 saves and struck out 74 in 63 innings. But he also finished with a 3.71 ERA, blew six saves and led all major league relievers in losses with 10. Jake McGee was the team’s best reliever but was limited to just 37.1 innings.
Why they can contend
The Rays entered the offseason in dire need of offense. Without the funds to sign any available big bats, the Rays made trades for the likes of Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison and Brad Miller. While Morrison and Miller do possess good left-handed power for a lineup that only saw right-handed power last season, they both struggle to make contact at times. So all eyes will be on Dickerson. In three season in the majors, Dickerson has hit like that of a star in the making. If the 26 year-old outfielder can become that for the Rays they should score a lot more runs this season.
The addition of Dickerson hitting behind Longoria should net him many more opportunities at pitches to hit. A lineup led by Longoria, Dickerson and Forsythe should be productive. To help even more, for every left-handed bat the Rays have a right-handed compliment to platoon with, the most notable of which being Steve Pearce. Pearce came out of nowhere while with the Baltimore Orioles, hitting for a ridiculous .921 OPS and 21 homers in 102 games and playing all over the diamond. Injuries attributed to those numbers falling in last season but he still showed power his power was legit with 15 home runs in 92 games.
The rotation returns Archer and both Smyly and Moore healthy to start the season. They also return Jake Odorizzi and Erasmo Ramirez, who are coming off impressive seasons. If this bunch remain healthy all season, there aren’t many rotations in baseball who can compete. The Rays will also see Cobb return at some point in the year and have a prospect in Blake Snell who could probably succeed in the Rays rotation to start to season if they needed him too.
Why they can’t contend
The bullpen will once again be a problem this season. Last week, Boxberger went down with an injury to his core and will start the season on the disabled list. McGee was what it cost the team to get Dickerson. Without those two, the team will need call on the likes of Alex Colome, Steve Geltz and newcomer Danny Farquhar to have major roles. Colome pitched very well once he was removed from the starting rotation but is a longshot to succeed in the closer’s role. Geltz is entering just his third season in the big leagues and Farquhar was terrible last year in his third season.
The offense is full of potential but lacks track records. The last two seasons for Longoria have not been good. Forsythe may not ever play as well as he did in 2015. DIckerson appears to be a hitter who will only continue to get better but this will be his first season not playing his home games at the hitter-friendly Coors Field. Morrison or Miller could be productive or could be DFA-candidates. Nothing on this offense is a sure thing.
The strength of the Rays is certainly their starting pitching. It’s no secret however that health has been an issue with this bunch. Both Smyly and Moore have all-star level talent but neither man has shown the capability of pitching full seasons. Ramirez season was similar to that of Forsythe’s as before last season as he had never been good enough to keep a significant role on a ballclub. He must prove 2015 was no fluke. These three at the back end are a must if the Rays are to contend this season.
The verdict: Pretender
If the Rays don’t pitch, they stand no chance in the American League East. If they do pitch, they still may not be good enough. Their everyday lineup only possess three players who are sure-starters on other teams. And then there is that bullpen. I just don’t see a way for this team to score enough runs to compete with the likes of the Blue Jays, Orioles and Red Sox.
