If you were born after 1979 and live in the West, particularly in the UK or US, Iran will have been a pariah and evil-doer your entire life. Following the Islamic Revolution of that year 52 American diplomats were taken hostage. From here America started its economic sanctions against Iran, while the Ayatollah defied them, making anti-Americanism a pillar of strength for him and his country.
This stand-off has evolved over 35 years and while the latest deal with Iran over its nuclear ambitions and the US’s sanctions is not the end of it, it is a significant step. Not only because it showed Iranians and Americans could sit down and cooperate, but because of how it has changed the way Iran will be perceived.
We can now see Iran in a new light. As sanctions begin to fall away so too does the image of a nuclear-hungry aggressor state. From the Assad-supporting regime to ISIS-fighting, Iraq-liberating allies. It should come as no surprise that Qasem Soleimani, who once controlled the Iranian military interests supporting Assad in Syria and now leads the Iranian Quds Forces fighting ISIS in Iraq, saw sanctions against him lifted.
For those of us brought up to see most depictions of Iran as a barbaric and backward nation state, this all might seem like a drastic switch. But in the context of modern Iranian history and its interaction with the West, it’s not as odd as it seems.
Oil and Nationalism
The West, particularly the British, has been involved with internal Iranian affairs for hundreds of years — just like a great many number of other countries. Aside from geopolitical and regional concerns, Iranian oil was unsurprisingly a big draw to the British who set up the Anglo-Persian Oil Company (APOC) in 1908 (this eventually became British Petroleum, or BP).
This company exercised significant control over Iranian oil, while Iran was seen as a friend. This was mostly due to the British ensuring those friendly to them were in control. This was not something many in Iran were fond of.
In 1951, Mohammed Mossadegh, a nationalist, was elected by the Iranian people. A proponent of nationalisation of the oil industry, the Iranian parliament voted to do just that the same year. British control over oil in Iran came to an abrupt, albeit short, halt.
To the British this was unacceptable and, after exhausting other avenues to control Mossadegh, they employed the Americans for Operation Boot: a plan to bring about a coup that would remove him from power and install someone more favourable to Western interests. The Americans were successful in their task.
It was these kinds of actions that caused such strong anti-Western and anti-American sentiment in Iran and across the Middle East. This coup’s effects can be directly linked to the eventual 1979 revolution that turned Iran into one of America’s most defiant enemies.
The Road Ahead
Cooperation has been building between the U.S and Iran for some time underneath the radar. Foreign Policy noted that Iranian and American scientists had been working together prior to 2009 to find a solution to Iran’s desperate problems with water. Eventually we saw America and Iran working together to fight ISIS in Iraq and now a deal has been made to severely diminish Iran’s ability to build a nuclear weapon while sanctions are lifted.
Although an agreement has been reached, there’s still a long way to go. Foreign business delegations have started to arrive, in particular those looking to the Iranian oil sector which is in need of management and development assistance — a consequence of Iran taking back ownership over its industry after the revolution. This can be both good and bad for Iran. Foreign money flowing in should increase the country’s wealth, but it also opens domestic companies up to international competition.
Outside investment might also be slow to arrive. The sanctions that have been lifted can ‘snap back’ suddenly if Iran violates the deal. Whether or not they will is difficult to say, making it a risky market. It will be difficult to encourage much external investment in anything long-term.
There’s a problem for Iran’s government too. Many Iranians believe their economic situation will soon improve. With many of these sanctions taking some time to be lifted and Iran’s existing economic problems, it’s likely they’ll be very disappointed. Meanwhile any sanctions not related to Iran’s nuclear ambitions will stay in place.
Ultimately economic pressure has been lifted from Iran. Not only can foreigners move in, but Iranian oil can now be sold on the market proper, and Iran can now trade globally like almost any other country. What will be interesting is how Tehran reacts to these foreigners. For a start, they have the money, but with the strong pillar of anti-West sentiment still in place, the government may be wary of allowing external businesses to go too far. Then again, if McDonald’s can spread to Saudi Arabia and China, why not Iran?
There’s no denying that this is a significant development for the entire world. Ultimately though, it will play out most strongly in the Middle East where America will surely see itself in conflict with Iran again over Syria. If the deal is a sign of things to come the future looks cooperative, but with a new U.S. president coming in 2016 and Iranian parliamentary elections the same year, things could change all too quickly.
