Guinea-Bissau goes to the polls on Sunday in search of a new president and parliament who can return stability to a country plagued by drugs and upended in a military coup two years ago.
Already mired in poverty, the west African nation has been stagnating since 2012 under the rule of a transitional government backed by its all-powerful military, with the economy anaemic and cocaine trafficking fuelling corruption.
In the potholed streets of the dilapidated capital Bissau, where people burn piles of uncollected rubbish each night, many of the country's 750,000-strong electorate say they want to vote, as one put it, to "get the country out of a hole".
Guinea-Bissau has a history of coups and no elected leader has served a full term in office since the country gained independence from Portugal in 1974 after a war that lasted more than 10 years.
Its 1.6 million people have suffered intermittent unrest since liberation, as well as a series of military coups attributed largely to the unprecedented bloating of the army after the war.
The chronic volatility has fanned poverty in a country with few resources other than cashew nuts and fish, attracting South American drug cartels who have turned it into a hub of cocaine trafficking for west Africa.
The drug trade and the money it generates have corrupted all of Guinea-Bissau's public institutions and in particular the armed forces, whose senior officers are accused of involvement in trafficking.
The United States charged 2012 coup leader Antonio Indjai in April last year with drug trafficking and seeking to sell arms to Colombian insurgents, although he has not been extradited and remains in Bissau.
He is accused of conspiring to sell surface-to-air missiles to Colombia's FARC rebels to shoot down US patrol helicopters and of seeking to import huge amounts of cocaine into the United States.
Days before Indjai's indictment, former navy chief Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchuto was arrested by US federal agents in waters off west Africa with several accomplices as he was allegedly about to receive a large shipment of cocaine.
- Dark horse -
Thirteen politicians have the job of convincing the people of Guinea-Bissau that they can stand up to the generals and reform the armed forces as the new president, while 15 parties are fielding candidates for parliament.
Among the presidential hopefuls are political heavyweights such as former finance minister Jose Mario Vaz, and Abel Incada, a member of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS) of former president Kumba Yala, who died last week.
The dark horse, however, could be 50-year-old independent candidate Paulo Gomes, an unusual proposition in a political landscape hitherto dominated by political grandees who made their names during the war of independence.
A gifted economist who has spent most of his life working abroad, including as the leader of the World Bank's sub-Saharan Africa division, he believes he has the know-how to begin to turn around the country's fortunes.
The election will be the first since Antonio Indjai, a former army chief of staff, agreed in May 2012 to hand power to a civilian transitional regime headed by President Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo, who was tasked with holding elections within 12 months.
He postponed the vote indefinitely, arguing that polls within such a tight timescale would be "technically impossible", but international pressure and the crippled economy finally forced the hand of the military and its political allies.
- 'New generation' -
Security during the vote will be provided by 4,200 Bissau-Guinean and West African soldiers.
Polling will be monitored by 550 international observers and a presidential runoff is scheduled on May 18 if no candidate emerges as the clear winner.
After the coup, most of Guinea-Bissau's partners, including the European Union, one of its largest donors, suspended aid donations.
The country is already ranked 177th out of 187 in the UN's human development index and two-thirds of the population are living below the poverty line.
Guinea-Bissau's fate after Sunday will depend on the leverage of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has become "tired of paying the bills for a regime that is close to bankruptcy", according to the International Crisis Group.
The think-tank said donors should be ready after the election to help the government pay immediate expenses, including public sector wages, provide long-term funding for development programmes and push for improved economic governance.
"The election winners will face numerous challenges," Comfort Ero, ICG's Africa programme director, said.
"Nonetheless, this is an opportunity for a new generation of politicians, who are more willing to compromise internally and internationally and are able to manage the country well enough to allow the re-legitimisation of the state and convince the military to consent to the modernisation needed."
Guinea-Bissau goes to the polls on Sunday in search of a new president and parliament who can return stability to a country plagued by drugs and upended in a military coup two years ago.
Already mired in poverty, the west African nation has been stagnating since 2012 under the rule of a transitional government backed by its all-powerful military, with the economy anaemic and cocaine trafficking fuelling corruption.
In the potholed streets of the dilapidated capital Bissau, where people burn piles of uncollected rubbish each night, many of the country’s 750,000-strong electorate say they want to vote, as one put it, to “get the country out of a hole”.
Guinea-Bissau has a history of coups and no elected leader has served a full term in office since the country gained independence from Portugal in 1974 after a war that lasted more than 10 years.
Its 1.6 million people have suffered intermittent unrest since liberation, as well as a series of military coups attributed largely to the unprecedented bloating of the army after the war.
The chronic volatility has fanned poverty in a country with few resources other than cashew nuts and fish, attracting South American drug cartels who have turned it into a hub of cocaine trafficking for west Africa.
The drug trade and the money it generates have corrupted all of Guinea-Bissau’s public institutions and in particular the armed forces, whose senior officers are accused of involvement in trafficking.
The United States charged 2012 coup leader Antonio Indjai in April last year with drug trafficking and seeking to sell arms to Colombian insurgents, although he has not been extradited and remains in Bissau.
He is accused of conspiring to sell surface-to-air missiles to Colombia’s FARC rebels to shoot down US patrol helicopters and of seeking to import huge amounts of cocaine into the United States.
Days before Indjai’s indictment, former navy chief Jose Americo Bubo Na Tchuto was arrested by US federal agents in waters off west Africa with several accomplices as he was allegedly about to receive a large shipment of cocaine.
– Dark horse –
Thirteen politicians have the job of convincing the people of Guinea-Bissau that they can stand up to the generals and reform the armed forces as the new president, while 15 parties are fielding candidates for parliament.
Among the presidential hopefuls are political heavyweights such as former finance minister Jose Mario Vaz, and Abel Incada, a member of the Party for Social Renewal (PRS) of former president Kumba Yala, who died last week.
The dark horse, however, could be 50-year-old independent candidate Paulo Gomes, an unusual proposition in a political landscape hitherto dominated by political grandees who made their names during the war of independence.
A gifted economist who has spent most of his life working abroad, including as the leader of the World Bank’s sub-Saharan Africa division, he believes he has the know-how to begin to turn around the country’s fortunes.
The election will be the first since Antonio Indjai, a former army chief of staff, agreed in May 2012 to hand power to a civilian transitional regime headed by President Manuel Serifo Nhamadjo, who was tasked with holding elections within 12 months.
He postponed the vote indefinitely, arguing that polls within such a tight timescale would be “technically impossible”, but international pressure and the crippled economy finally forced the hand of the military and its political allies.
– ‘New generation’ –
Security during the vote will be provided by 4,200 Bissau-Guinean and West African soldiers.
Polling will be monitored by 550 international observers and a presidential runoff is scheduled on May 18 if no candidate emerges as the clear winner.
After the coup, most of Guinea-Bissau’s partners, including the European Union, one of its largest donors, suspended aid donations.
The country is already ranked 177th out of 187 in the UN’s human development index and two-thirds of the population are living below the poverty line.
Guinea-Bissau’s fate after Sunday will depend on the leverage of the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), which has become “tired of paying the bills for a regime that is close to bankruptcy”, according to the International Crisis Group.
The think-tank said donors should be ready after the election to help the government pay immediate expenses, including public sector wages, provide long-term funding for development programmes and push for improved economic governance.
“The election winners will face numerous challenges,” Comfort Ero, ICG’s Africa programme director, said.
“Nonetheless, this is an opportunity for a new generation of politicians, who are more willing to compromise internally and internationally and are able to manage the country well enough to allow the re-legitimisation of the state and convince the military to consent to the modernisation needed.”
