There are two theories rattling around about the destruction of the Nova Khakovka dam in Ukraine. One is that the Russians blew it up to create a water barrier to the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive. The other is that the Ukrainians blew it up for unknown reasons.
There’s a raft of huge practical problems here. The dam supplies water to a very large area, including Crimea. The denial of water to so many people helps nobody. It makes Crimea even less sustainable to supply and defend. The flood has already displaced large numbers of people on the Ukrainian side.
…And the European drought is still very much in play. Even the Danube is at much lower levels. Wildfire season in this part of the world starts in mid-summer, around July. Evaporation from dams peaks at the same time. So blowing up a dam isn’t a great move for anyone.
From the Russian perspective, the flood can only provide a temporary barrier until the waters subside. Lower water levels definitely won’t stop modern armies. Water shortages directly affect troops and vehicles, too, particularly in the very hot weather typical of Ukrainian summers.
It’s unclear exactly what effect the dam failure will have in Crimea. Over such a large area, there must be alternate means of water supply. If not, a lot of people are going to be very thirsty in the middle of an active combat zone.
Before and after pictures from the area show utter devastation. These areas will be effectively impassable for some time. Upstream, however, is a different matter. The damage is well downstream from sensitive areas around Zaporizhzhia and the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant.
If the Russians blew it up, it could be two major own goals. They’d be destroying their own water supply and uncovering a larger area to defend upstream.
From the Ukrainian perspective, blowing up the dam makes little sense. They’re winning. They can simply go around any obstacles anywhere in Ukraine. The Russians are unlikely to be able to stop any move they make, and they know it.
Perhaps more to the point – They have nothing to gain from retaking a waterless Crimea in the middle of a super drought. They’d also have a huge bill for collateral damage.
Perhaps the Russians rigged the dam for detonation in the event of a Ukrainian attack across the river and the charges went off. This would be in keeping with their constant, effectively mindless, repetition of WW2 tactics. They couldn’t admit an accident. It’d be yet another humiliation.
Whatever happened, life is about to get pretty tough for water supplies in the Crimea and Kherson regions. It’s already a humanitarian disaster, and probably about to become a military disaster.
___________________________________________________________
Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
