For some time now, the Wagner Group and the Russian army, and the Ministry of Defense have been waging a war with each other. Now, Wagner chief Prighozin says that it’s “betrayal or bureaucracy” if his troops don’t get ammunition. He also says the Bakhmut offensive could be “in peril”. He’s also said the front could collapse.
There’s some military credibility in this statement on multiple levels:
- Prighozin was highly critical of the army recently and has been taking credit for whatever progress is made in Bakhmut.
- Russia’s battered and tattered logistics would be having trouble supplying any major operation.
- Modern warfare uses a lot of ammunition in days, let alone the months of fighting at Bakhmut. Supplies of all kinds would have to be running low.
- The type of ammunition is also very important. If Western tanks arrive, Russia only has a very limited number of effective anti-tank weapons in its inventory to fight them. The tanks could easily smash the Russian forces if there are no countermeasures.
- The Ukrainians have just pushed back the Russians in what seems to be a carefully-controlled series of counterassaults. If the Russians are short of ammo as well, this could mean total failure of the Bakhmut offensive after all these months.
Prighozin has other things to worry about. If the Bakhmut offensive fails, it’s his baby. The Russian army can truthfully say it’s not their fault. Close ties to Putin or not, this is not a good position for Wagner or Prighozin.
The Russian Ministry of Defense, understandably, isn’t saying much. They’re hardly likely to admit to sabotaging the battle. Nor are they likely to admit any logistic failures of their own.
The Ministry is also historically directly associated with Russia’s horrendous logistics and quality issues since the start of the war. “Ammunition” means whatever’s left in Russia’s barely-plausible inventory. Ukraine has been peppered with duds in the last year. The wastage is simply not sustainable.
The siege warfare at Bakhmut is also unsustainable. Multiple assaults have been very slow to achieve anything, inching forward into more combat. The Russian casualties are obviously high. Whatever’s left of the Wagner and Russian army troops cannot possibly be in good shape.
Their ability to stop any Ukrainian offensive is questionable at best. Bakhmut could be the last gasp of an army that is literally out on its feet.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
