The National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) 7 a.m. advisory had Cristobal located 65 miles (590 kilometers) south of the mouth of the Mississippi River, moving north at 12 mph (19 kph). Cristobal has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph (85 kph), and a minimum central pressure of 992 MB – 29.29 inches.
The storm is expected to make landfall across Louisiana late Sunday and Monday morning and across Arkansas Monday afternoon and Monday night. Several models say this could fall somewhere between Marsh Island and Slidell, Louisiana. But that does not mean other locations will be free from impact.
7 AM CDT Intermediate Update on TS #Cristobal. #lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/7nsPeiY8EE
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) June 6, 2020
While Cristobal has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph – with higher gusts – some strengthening is expected until the storm makes landfall. Weakening will begin once Cristobal moves inland late Sunday and Monday.
CNN meteorologist Dave Hennen notes that “the highest winds, greatest storm surge and heaviest rain may occur east of where Cristobal makes landfall, so not only is the Louisiana coast at risk, but also Mississippi, Alabama and well into the Florida Panhandle.”
In the New Orleans area, voluntary evacuation orders are in place for the towns of Jean Lafitte, Lower Lafitte, Crown Point and Barataria, Jefferson Parish officials announced Saturday morning.
There is a voluntary evacuation for the town of Jean Lafitte, Lower Lafitte, Crown Point and Barataria due to Tropical Storm Cristobal starting at 7 a.m. today. pic.twitter.com/r8HhUtWizK
— Jefferson Parish (@JeffParishGov) June 6, 2020
Thunderstorms will be primarily on Cristobal’s eastern and northeastern side, with tropical-storm-force winds also located mainly north and east of the center of circulation, according to Weather.com.
The NHC has issued a storm surge warning from the mouth of the Mississippi River east to Ocean Springs, Mississippi, including Lake Borgne. Storm surge watches are in effect for areas on either side of the storm surge warning – from east of Morgan City, Louisiana, to the mouth of the Mississippi River, and from Indian Pass to Arepika, Florida.
Swells generated by the storm will affect the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
As for rainfall, accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding, in addition to widespread flooding on smaller order streams being possible. “The heaviest rain and greatest coastal flooding threat is expected Saturday night through Sunday,” according to the National Weather Service.
