There is more than a 40 percent chance that the annual average global temperature in at least one of the next five years will temporarily reach 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels.
This conclusion comes in a report published today by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update spans 2021-2025. The report is based on modeling by the UK Met Office and climate researchers in 10 countries including the US and China.
Professor Adam Scaife, the head of seasonal to decadal prediction at the Met Office commented on the report: “Assessing the increase in global temperature in the context of climate change refers to the long-term global average temperature, not to the averages for individual years or months. Nevertheless, a temporary exceedance of the 1.5-degree level may already be seen in the next few years.”
The planet has already experienced record-breaking heat. For example, 2020 was a record-breaker, with global temperatures about 1.2 degrees Celsius hotter than they were in the late 1800s.
Millions of people around the globe suffered, with the United States experiencing a record number of billion-dollar weather-induced disasters, including wildfires, hurricanes and extreme snow storms. But widespread droughts, floods and heat waves killed people on every continent except Antarctica, according to NPR.org.
Randall Cerveny, a climate scientist at Arizona State University and a World Meteorological Organization rapporteur who was not involved in the report, says “We’re seeing accelerating change in our climate.”
“We had had some hopes that, with last year’s COVID scenario, perhaps the lack of travel [and] the lack of industry might act as a little bit of a brake,” Cerveny says. “But what we’re seeing is, frankly, it has not.”
The difference between temperature variability and the Paris Agreement goal
Leon Hermanson, a senior Met Office scientist, told BBC News that comparing projected temperatures with those of 1880-1900 shows a clear rise. “What it means is that we’re approaching 1.5C – we’re not there yet but we’re getting close,” he said.
“Time is running out for the strong action which we need now.”
But it is important that the public understand that even if just one year out of the next five years is 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, it will be a temporary situation, according to the scientists.
This is part and parcel of natural temperature variability, and could mean that over the next few years, we may even see a year with cooler temperatures, and actually, it could be as long as another decade or two before the 1.5C limit is crossed permanently.
Just remember that the Paris Climate Agreement established the goal of keeping the increase in the global average temperature to no more than 2C, and trying really hard to not surpass 1.5C.
According to Dr Joeri Rogelj, director of research at the Grantham Institute, Imperial College London, “the 1.5C in the Met Office announcement should not be confused with the 1.5C limit in the Paris Agreement”.
“The Paris targets refer to global warming – that is, the temperature increase of our planet once we smooth out year-to-year variations,” he explained. “A single year hitting 1.5C therefore doesn’t mean the Paris limits are breached, but is nevertheless very bad news.
“It tells us once again that climate action to date is wholly insufficient and emissions need to be reduced urgently to zero to halt global warming.”
According to the WMO’s report on the State of the Global Climate 2020, released in April, it highlighted the acceleration in climate change indicators like rising sea levels, melting sea ice, and extreme weather, as well as worsening impacts on socio-economic development.
But referring to today’s report, WMO Secretary-General Petteri Taalas said in a statement, “It is yet another wakeup call that the world needs to fast-track commitments to slash greenhouse gas emissions and achieve carbon neutrality.:
Climate scientists from Spain, Germany, Canada, China, USA, Japan, Australia, Sweden, Norway, and Denmark contributed new predictions this year according to the Met Office.
