Three “super-tipping points” for climate action could trigger a cascade of decarbonization across the global economy.
The world is hurtling toward a series of catastrophic climate tipping points, which risk setting off feedback loops that lock the world into irreversible climate change, reports CNN News.
And while this may be bad news for the planet, there may also be some good news, according to a new report unveiled at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.
The analysis was produced by an international team including Systemiq and the University of Exeter – which shows how parts of the global economy could move rapidly towards zero emissions, with far-reaching effects across 10 of the highest-emitting sectors- known as “The “Breakthrough Effect.“
Three “super-leverage, or tipping points” could trigger a cascade of tipping points for zero-carbon solutions in sectors covering 70 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, according to ‘The Breakthrough Effect.”
“With time running out, there is a need for action to be targeted,” said Mark Meldrum, at the consultancy Systemiq, which produced the report with partners including the University of Exeter, UK. Each super-tipping point crossed raises the chance of crossing others, he said. “That could set off a cascade to steer us away from a climate catastrophe.”
A leverage point is where a small intervention can cause a large effect. The “super-leverage points” identified in the report not only cut emissions in one key sector but also support faster changes in other parts of the economy.
Three super-tipping points identified
According to The Guardian, the tipping point for electric vehicles is very close with sales soaring, the report says. Setting dates around the world for the end of sales of fossil-fuel-powered vehicles, such as the 2030 date set for new vehicles by the UK and 2035 in China, drives further growth, the report adds.
This scale-up means the batteries used will become cheaper and these can be deployed as storage for wind and solar power, further accelerating the growth of renewables. More green energy means lower electricity bills, in turn making heat pumps even more cost-effective.
“Electrifying cars means a tipping point for ever cheaper batteries, and cheaper batteries could be a really valuable, cheap source of storage of electricity to enable the transition to renewable power,” Tim Lenton, Chair in Climate Change and Earth System Science at the University of Exeter and a report author, told CNN.
The second super-tipping point is helping alternative proteins to beat animal-based proteins on cost, while at least matching them on taste. Livestock farming produces close to 15 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions.
Plant-based proteins – things like beans, lentils, peas, and nuts – produce up to 90 percent fewer emissions than meat.
Public procurement of plant-based meat and dairy replacements by government departments, schools, and hospitals could be a powerful lever, the report says. This policy change could also help shift social norms around plant-based products and increase their appeal, Lenton said.
The third super-tipping point is setting mandates for green fertilizers, to replace current fertilizers, which are produced from fossil gas. Ammonia is a key ingredient and can be made from hydrogen produced by renewable energy, combined with nitrogen from the air.
Ramping up the production of “green fertilizer” could not only slash emissions from the production of agricultural fertilizer but also help kickstart a green hydrogen economy, according to the report.
This would also support long-distance aviation and shipping, as well as steel production, which will rely on hydrogen to end carbon emissions.
“We need to find and trigger positive socioeconomic tipping points if we are to limit the risk from damaging climate tipping points. This non-linear way of thinking about the climate problem gives plausible grounds for hope: the more that gets invested in socioeconomic transformation, the faster it will unfold – getting the world to net zero greenhouse gas emissions sooner,” said Professor Lenton.
