This past summer, for the first time in recorded history, rain fell at Greenland’s summit. Greenland experienced what the Washington Post called a “major melting event,” and the amount of ice mass lost on that weekend was seven times the daily average for that time of year.
The planet’s warming is transforming the sprawling and fragile Arctic, moving it toward a future that can be summed up in four words: more rain, less snow, according to a new study in Nature Communications.
The team of researchers, led by Michelle McCrystall at the University of Manitoba in Canada, predict the Arctic is on a path to see more rain than snow, a fundamental shift that could occur between 2060 and 2070, decades earlier than expected.
“What happens in the Arctic doesn’t stay there,” said McCrystall, according to The Guardian. “You might think the Arctic is far removed from your day-to-day life, but in fact temperatures there have warmed up so much that [it] will have an impact further south.”
“The fact that there could be an increase in emissions from permafrost thaw or an increase in global sea-level rise, it is a global problem, and it needs a global answer.”
The study cited the increase in rainfall – due in large part to the loss of sea ice, as well as more open water and warmer air temperatures – all leading to more evaporation, This sets the stage for a wetter Arctic.
The researchers say the rainfall-dominated Arctic has the potential to destabilize Greenland’s ice sheet mass balance, triggering a global rise in sea levels.
The planet is quickly approaching the 1.5 degrees Celsius threshold
In August, the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) published its authoritative report which concluded the planet is quickly approaching 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial temperatures — a threshold scientists say the world should stay under to avoid the worst consequences of the climate crisis.
An analysis by Climate Action Tracker of the world’s current policies shows that the Earth is currently on track for 2.7 degrees Celsius of warming. But this is with the assumption that countries will follow through with their plans to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.
The study references the UN report, writing that if that figure rises to 3 degrees, they expect rain to dominate most of the Arctic. “If we did stay within this 1.5-degree world, the Arctic could remain snow-dominant by the end of the century, but some parts (including Greenland) probably still will transition,” says McCrystall.
Another thing to keep in mind is the phenomenal loss involved, both monetarily and environmentally, as the Arctic region continues to warm. Impacts in the region include the melting of vital ice roads, more floods, destruction of infrastructure, and starvation for herds of animals.
“When rain falls on snow and then freezes, it stops the animals feeding. The reindeer, caribou, and musk oxen can’t break through the layer of ice, so they can’t get to the grass they need to survive and suffer huge die-offs,” McCrystall said.
Much of the land in the Arctic is tundra, where the soil has been permanently frozen, but more rain would change that. “You are putting warm water into the ground that might melt the permafrost and that will have global implications because as we know, permafrost is a really great sink of carbon and of methane,” said McCrystall.
