WASHINGTON – The Bush administration is planning a sustained military campaign – not mere retaliation – against the terrorists behind the attacks on New York and Washington and governments that aid them, the No. 2 man at the Pentagon said Thursday.
“It’s going to unfold over time,” Deputy Defense Secretary Paul Wolfowitz said. He added that President Bush has “a whole range of options in front of him” as he decides how to wage what he has pledged will be a “war on terrorism” aimed at “eradicating” those who practice it.
Experts said the military options broadly include:
• Launching strikes with cruise missiles or long-range bombers on camps in Afghanistan thought to be occupied by followers of Osama bin Laden, who has been given sanctuary by the Taliban, the fundamentalist Islamic movement that rules that nation.
Secretary of State Colin Powell confirmed Thursday that the administration suspects the former Saudi billionaire was the mastermind behind Tuesday’s attacks.
• Inserting special operations forces into Afghanistan covertly to find Mr. bin Laden and to capture or kill him and as many of his followers as possible or to call in airstrikes on the terrorists.
• Mounting a massive military operation – possibly including an invasion with the assistance of NATO and other allies – to overthrow the government of any nation that helped the terrorists who pulled off Tuesday’s complex and expensive airliner hijackings.
Some analysts suggest that Saddam Hussein’s Iraq or other nations on the State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism may have assisted in the plot.
“I think those are the general options that are likely being explored right now,” said Andrew Krepinevich, a former Army officer and an adviser to Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld on ways to revamp the military.
Range of options
The armed forces possess the weapons and manpower to handle nearly any option Mr. Bush might choose, short of occupying a country as large as Iraq or waging a ground war against more than one state sponsor of terrorism simultaneously, experts said.
The State Department’s list of state sponsors of terrorism includes Cuba, Iran, Iraq, Libya, North Korea, Sudan and Syria.
“We’ve got plenty of tools that would allow us to conduct operations,” said retired Air Force Gen. Richard Hawley, former commander in chief of the Air Combat Command. “I wouldn’t think we’d want to go to war with four or five countries at once.”
Mr. Wolfowitz, however, said some of the $20 billion in emergency funds Mr. Bush has asked Congress to provide would be used to beef up the military for the war on terrorism. He offered no specifics.
Something different
The military has had counterterrorist troops for years, including the Army’s famed Delta Force and the Navy’s SEALs. But government policy until now has been to treat terrorists as criminals who are to be arrested and put on trial, not attack them militarily, and to put diplomatic pressure on states that assist them.
The Bush administration is embarking on something very different, Mr. Wolfowitz said.
“It’s not just simply a matter of capturing people and holding them accountable, but removing the sanctuaries, removing the support systems, ending states who sponsor terrorism,” he explained.
Cruise missiles, which could be launched from ships or submarines in the Indian Ocean or long-range B-52 bombers, were used by President Bill Clinton in 1998 to retaliate after terrorist bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania blamed on Mr. bin Laden.
Although the long-range strikes put no troops at risk, that method was ineffective. While Mr. Wolfowitz didn’t rule out such operations, he said, “One thing that is clear is you don’t do it with just a single military strike, no matter how dramatic.”
Morale booster
Other experts suggested that Mr. Bush might consider launching such a strike simply to raise American morale, just as President Franklin D. Roosevelt ordered a long-range bombing raid on Japan led by Col. Jimmy Doolittle after the Japanese attacked Pearl Harbor in 1941.
“If you want to do something that’s therapeutic and builds morale for a little while, that may be an option,” Mr. Krepinevich said. “But certainly, that attack wouldn’t be any more successful in breaking up these terrorist organizations that Doolittle’s pinprick raid was in defeating Japan.”
The only way to break up the bin Laden network and other terrorist organizations Mr. Bush chooses to target, the experts said, may be to use ground troops.
“You can make life pretty painful for them” using airstrikes alone, Gen. Hawley said. “But if you really want to defeat them, I think terrorism is one of those things you’ve really got to take on on the ground.”
Ground troops that could be used in Afghanistan to go after Mr. bin Laden might range from special operations units to airborne troops such as the 82nd and 101st Airborne divisions or the 10th Mountain Division, whose troops are trained for mountain warfare.
But sending large numbers of troops into Afghanistan would be fraught with difficulties and risks, as the Soviet Union learned when it occupied the country from 1979 to 1989. Afghan rebels, backed by U.S. weapons and other aid, ultimately defeated the Soviets.
“The mountains and valleys of Afghanistan are littered with the bones of imperial-power troops that tried to subdue that country, whether it was the British in the 19th century or the Soviets,” Mr. Krepinevich noted.
Even commando operations could be problematic, said retired Marine Corps Col. Jim Schaefer, because helicopters fly poorly and are limited in what they can carry in altitudes above 15,000 feet. The mountains of Afghanistan often exceed that height, he said.
“That location is probably the hardest to hit in the world,” said Col. Schaefer, who flew one of the helicopters in Desert One, the 1980 attempt to rescue U.S. hostages in Iran that ended with a fiery nighttime collision in the Iranian desert. Eight men died in that attempted commando raid.
Tracking bin Laden
The most promising way to go after Mr. bin Laden probably would be to insert special operations forces who would try to locate him covertly, then direct airstrikes by B-2 Spirit stealth bombers, Gen. Hawley said.
Tracking the elusive Mr. bin Laden could be difficult. He is known to travel in small convoys, accompanied only by loyal bodyguards and fellow Arabs, rarely staying in one place for long.
And even such limited operations would require at least the use of the airspace of one of Afghanistan’s neighbors so that AWACS or Joint STARS reconnaissance planes and tankers could assist the bombers.
“Afghanistan’s a landlocked country, so you’re going to have to get permission from either … Iran or Pakistan to operate against those people from the air,” Gen. Hawley said. “If I were the Central Command commander right now, with responsibility for these kinds of operations, I’d be in serious talks with Pakistan trying to get them to cooperate.”
Mr. Powell telephoned Pakistan’s president, Gen. Pervez Musharraf, on Thursday seeking “a specific list of things that we think would be useful for them to work on with us.”
After a 10-minute conversation, said State Department spokesman Richard Boucher, Gen Musharraf pledged Pakistan’s cooperation.
Smoke continues to fill the sky from the collapsed World Trade Center buildings, Wednesday, Sept. 12, 2001. Photo: Robin Weiner, WirePix.
