CoinDesk analysis
Yesterday Omkar Godpole wrote an analysis for CoinDesk that was last updated at 21:54 UTC November 2. Godpole claims that there are a number of support levels increasing for BTC. This means the bears will face an uphill battle.
The latest additional support is the trendline that connects the November 2011 and August 2016 lows currently at $5,830. Up to October 31 the two key support levels were the 21-month Exponential Moving Average (EMA) and the trendline drawn between the June and August lows. The 21-month EMA was the level the bears had to break until last month if they hoped to revive the selloff from the record high of around $20,000 last December. While this remains a crucial support the new level is the seven-year-long rising trendline.
The trendline which was situated at around $5,300 last month, has now moved nearer to the present price and could rise above $6,300 in December. It thus may be incorrect to assess a break below the 21-month EMA as a sign of a bear revival.
As the article went to price BItcoin was trading at $6,330 on Bitstamp a drop of 0.5 percent in 24 hours.
Chart analysis
On the monthly chart, a break below the trendline support of $5,830 would tighten the bear grip and permit a decline to the psychological support level of $5,000. The bulls would be heartened if there were a strong bounce off that support level.
Over the next 24 hours, investors should watch the symmetrical triangle outlined in the daily chart. The upper edge of the triangle is currently at $6,400 and is proving a hard nut to crack. A break beyond that level would put the bulls in control and open the way for a rise up to $6,756 the October 15 high.
CoinDesk’s outlook
Based on his analysis Godpole suggests: “The 7-year-long-rising trendline is the new level to beat for the bears. A symmetrical triangle breakout, if confirmed, could yield a re-test of Oct. 15 highs above $6,750. On the other hand, a downside break would expose the Oct. 11 low of $6,055.”
Present situation
It is now well into November 3rd. The day opened with BTC at $6,368. The high has been only marginally more at $6,370 whereas the low has been $6,321. The price has not been able to break above $6,400 so far and give the bulls some hope. However, there is no good news for the bulls either as the drop today has been small. We seem to be in another low volatility environment with no obvious direction for trading. At 18:42 on November 3rd the price of BTC was $6,338. The present price of BTC can be found here.
