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article imageBitcoin appears to be consolidating a bit below the $4,000 level

By Ken Hanly     Dec 4, 2018 in Technology
After a brief recovery from one week lows, bitcoin appears to be consolidating slightly below $4,000. Although it did manage to climb back over $4,000 briefly today it has dropped well below that level later today.
CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole has his usual daily analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price movements on CoinDesk. His analysis was last updated at 15:15 UTC. Godpole notes that a quick recovery from one-week lows may have helped BTC avoid a larger loss. but the bulls are not yet in control.
Last week, Bitcoin established a lower-high pattern at $4,400 and closed well below $4,000 yesterday. This was a bearish signal indicating an end to the corrective bounce it had been enjoying. BTC was on the defensive early today as prices managed to hit a one-week low at $3,730 on Bitstamp although it quickly rose back to near $4,000.
The sudden recovery from one-week lows probably shows that sellers are reluctant to step in a current prices. The sellers may be exhausted have managed to push BTC down by more than 30 percent through the month of November.
A short-term bullish reversal would be validated only above the recent high of $4,410. As the article went to press BTC was trading at $3,955 on Bitstamp a marginal loss so far for the day.
Chart analysis
The daily chart shows Bitcoin struggled to close above the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) for 4 days running before it ended up falling below $3,861 the November 30 low yesterday. The drop below that level confirmed the end of the oversold rally. Added to this, the 5 and 10-day EMAs are continuing a decline, a move that favors the bears.
Technical signals indicate a move downwards. If the prices create a higher low and higher high pattern with a convincing move above the $4,410 level.
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin's rally from its seven-day lows has created a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI). This could result in a falling channel breakout within the next few hours. This could open the doors to the target of $4,410 should it happen.
Godbole's view
Based on his technical analysis Godbole believes: "The odds of an immediate drop toward $3,500 have dropped somewhat with BTC’s quick recovery from the one-week low of $3,730. A falling channel breakout on the hourly chart would open up upside toward $4,410 (Nov. 29 high). A UTC close above that level would signal a continuation of the recovery rally from the 14-month low of $3,474 hit on Nov. 25. A drop below $3,730 (today’s low) would put the focus back on the overall bearish technical setup and could yield a re-test of $3,474."
Present situation
24 hours ago BTC was trading at $3,858 according to CoinDesk data. It has had a high above $4,000 at $4,034 and a low of $3,724. At 19:15 Central Standard Time it was at $3,876 a gain of $18 dollars from the open. There is no sign of a move yet to the $4,410 level. Although it did briefly go below $3,730, it quickly rose above that level again. For now there appears no big move in either direction but perhaps a consolidation before the next move in either direction. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
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