CoinDesk analysis
Omkar Godbole has his usual daily analysis of Bitcoin (BTC) price movements on CoinDesk. His analysis was last updated at 15:15 UTC. Godpole notes that a quick recovery from one-week lows may have helped BTC avoid a larger loss. but the bulls are not yet in control.
Last week, Bitcoin established a lower-high pattern at $4,400 and closed well below $4,000 yesterday. This was a bearish signal indicating an end to the corrective bounce it had been enjoying. BTC was on the defensive early today as prices managed to hit a one-week low at $3,730 on Bitstamp although it quickly rose back to near $4,000.
The sudden recovery from one-week lows probably shows that sellers are reluctant to step in a current prices. The sellers may be exhausted have managed to push BTC down by more than 30 percent through the month of November.
A short-term bullish reversal would be validated only above the recent high of $4,410. As the article went to press BTC was trading at $3,955 on Bitstamp a marginal loss so far for the day.
Chart analysis
The daily chart shows Bitcoin struggled to close above the 10-day exponential moving average (EMA) for 4 days running before it ended up falling below $3,861 the November 30 low yesterday. The drop below that level confirmed the end of the oversold rally. Added to this, the 5 and 10-day EMAs are continuing a decline, a move that favors the bears.
Technical signals indicate a move downwards. If the prices create a higher low and higher high pattern with a convincing move above the $4,410 level.
On the hourly chart, Bitcoin’s rally from its seven-day lows has created a bullish divergence of the relative strength index (RSI). This could result in a falling channel breakout within the next few hours. This could open the doors to the target of $4,410 should it happen.
Godbole’s view
Based on his technical analysis Godbole believes: “The odds of an immediate drop toward $3,500 have dropped somewhat with BTC’s quick recovery from the one-week low of $3,730. A falling channel breakout on the hourly chart would open up upside toward $4,410 (Nov. 29 high). A UTC close above that level would signal a continuation of the recovery rally from the 14-month low of $3,474 hit on Nov. 25. A drop below $3,730 (today’s low) would put the focus back on the overall bearish technical setup and could yield a re-test of $3,474.”
Present situation
24 hours ago BTC was trading at $3,858 according to CoinDesk data. It has had a high above $4,000 at $4,034 and a low of $3,724. At 19:15 Central Standard Time it was at $3,876 a gain of $18 dollars from the open. There is no sign of a move yet to the $4,410 level. Although it did briefly go below $3,730, it quickly rose above that level again. For now there appears no big move in either direction but perhaps a consolidation before the next move in either direction. The present price of Bitcoin can be found here.
