In an article published Thursday in Digital Journal, we talked about the importance of measuring a hurricane’s intensification processes, and how modern technology aids in getting wind speed, temperatures of the ocean and other data in allowing meteorologists to forecast a hurricane’s path and intensity.
Today, we are seeing some of that science in action. At 2 p.m. today, Hurricane Danny was upgraded to a category 3 hurricane after sustained winds were found to be 115 mph. as it continues to make its way toward the Caribbean. This afternoon, the storm is about 900 miles east of the leeward Islands, moving at 10 mph on a northwestward route.
If the storm were to continue straight on this route, as some computer models indicate, we could be looking at Danny bearing down on Bermuda and Florida later next week. But a lot could happen between now and then. Hurricane Danny is still a small storm, despite its being a category 3 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Because of its small size, Hurricane Danny’s winds only extend 60 miles from its center, making it unable to cover as much ground as some of our larger hurricanes in past years. As an example, look at the photo below showing Hurricane Danny compared to Hurricane Bill in 2009.
Why no intensification of Hurricane Danny is expected
The NHC in its latest advisory is saying no intensification of the storm is expected because on some decidedly unfavorable upper-level winds. Added to the upper-level changing winds is wind shear. Wind shear can tear a hurricane apart.
At the moment, the sub-tropical jet stream is sitting over the Caribbean and on up over the Windward Islands. This jet stream isn’t forecast to go anywhere in the next few days, and this is why Danny will probably weaken sometime tonight. But even though Danny may weaken, it could still prove to be a blessing for Puerto Rico. The island country desperately needs some rain.
