Wanted: a new prime minister for Turkey who should be ultra-loyal to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, obedient but still strong enough to steer the government of a country of almost 79 million.
One week after Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu's shock announcement he was stepping down, there is still uncertainty over who will be the next premier, although several candidates have moved to the top of the list as the Ankara rumour mill goes into frenzy.
Those in the frame are all arch-loyalists of Erdogan ranging from his longtime transport czar, his own son-in-law and faithful ministers who have never once contradicted him on policy.
Analysts believe Davutoglu, a heavyweight former foreign minister, was forced out of office due to repeated disagreements with Erdogan and that the key quality in the next head of government will be loyalty.
Davutoglu "was not as pliant as expected and became too independent," said Anthony Skinner, director at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
"A premier who breaks rank with Erdogan on any single issue risks being shown the door."
- 'Erdogan will decide' -
The waiting will be over by May 22 when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at an extraordinary congress approves its new party leader who will then take over from Davutoglu as prime minister.
But whatever disagreements there have been behind closed doors, the AKP will do everything to give the impression of a smooth handover of power with Davutoglu given an honourable send-off and passing the baton to his successor.
There is expected to be only one candidate nominated at the congress and AKP officials have indicated his name will only be put forward just before it begins in Ankara.
"In my opinion, the candidate for party chairman will be announced one or two days before the congress," said AKP deputy chairman Mustafa Atas.
While the selection of the candidate is seen as an internal party process, few doubt that Erdogan will have the final say to choose whoever suits him best.
"In this race, the one who President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to work with in the future will be the one selected," wrote the the well-connected columnist for the Hurriyet daily, Abdulkadir Selvi.
One of the key tasks of the new prime minister will be to oversee the implementation of Erdogan's dream of creating a presidential system in Turkey through changing the constitution, which would consolidate his status as the country's number one.
- Son-in-law or transport czar? -
So far three main contenders have emerged as the prime candidates for premier:
BINALI YILDIRIM: Currently transport minister, Yildirim, 60, is seen as one of Erdogan's closest longtime confidants, working as head of the Istanbul ferry company while Erdogan was mayor of the city in the second half of the 1990s.
After the AKP won power, he served an almost unbroken stint from 2002-2013 and again from 2015 as transport minister, one of the key portfolios as Erdogan moves to create a "New Turkey" with vast infrastructure projects.
Selvi suggested the only serious difference between the two men is that Erdogan supports the Fenerbahce football side and Yildirim their arch Istanbul rivals Galatasaray.
BERAT ALBAYRAK: Albayrak,38, is one of the young rising stars of the AKP and energy minister, his first cabinet post. He is also Erdogan's son-in-law, marrying the president's eldest daughter Esra in 2004.
He was until 2013 chief executive of the Calik Holding conglomerate and Erdogan is considered very close to his father Sadik. Nevertheless, his relative inexperience and inevitable opposition charges of nepotism if appointed may count against him.
BEKIR BOZDAG: Bozdag, 51, was deputy prime minister from 2011 and then justice minister from 2013. A figure who has never once stepped out of line with Erdogan, Bozdag has presided since summer 2014 over the judicial crackdown on allies and interests of the president's arch enemy, the US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen.
OTHERS: It is possible the decision has not yet been made in private and several other names are also circulating in the press, including two deputy prime ministers Numan Kurtulmus and Yalcin Akdogan and head of the health ministry Mehmet Muezzinoglu.
Wanted: a new prime minister for Turkey who should be ultra-loyal to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, obedient but still strong enough to steer the government of a country of almost 79 million.
One week after Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu’s shock announcement he was stepping down, there is still uncertainty over who will be the next premier, although several candidates have moved to the top of the list as the Ankara rumour mill goes into frenzy.
Those in the frame are all arch-loyalists of Erdogan ranging from his longtime transport czar, his own son-in-law and faithful ministers who have never once contradicted him on policy.
Analysts believe Davutoglu, a heavyweight former foreign minister, was forced out of office due to repeated disagreements with Erdogan and that the key quality in the next head of government will be loyalty.
Davutoglu “was not as pliant as expected and became too independent,” said Anthony Skinner, director at risk consultancy Verisk Maplecroft.
“A premier who breaks rank with Erdogan on any single issue risks being shown the door.”
– ‘Erdogan will decide’ –
The waiting will be over by May 22 when the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) at an extraordinary congress approves its new party leader who will then take over from Davutoglu as prime minister.
But whatever disagreements there have been behind closed doors, the AKP will do everything to give the impression of a smooth handover of power with Davutoglu given an honourable send-off and passing the baton to his successor.
There is expected to be only one candidate nominated at the congress and AKP officials have indicated his name will only be put forward just before it begins in Ankara.
“In my opinion, the candidate for party chairman will be announced one or two days before the congress,” said AKP deputy chairman Mustafa Atas.
While the selection of the candidate is seen as an internal party process, few doubt that Erdogan will have the final say to choose whoever suits him best.
“In this race, the one who President Recep Tayyip Erdogan wants to work with in the future will be the one selected,” wrote the the well-connected columnist for the Hurriyet daily, Abdulkadir Selvi.
One of the key tasks of the new prime minister will be to oversee the implementation of Erdogan’s dream of creating a presidential system in Turkey through changing the constitution, which would consolidate his status as the country’s number one.
– Son-in-law or transport czar? –
So far three main contenders have emerged as the prime candidates for premier:
BINALI YILDIRIM: Currently transport minister, Yildirim, 60, is seen as one of Erdogan’s closest longtime confidants, working as head of the Istanbul ferry company while Erdogan was mayor of the city in the second half of the 1990s.
After the AKP won power, he served an almost unbroken stint from 2002-2013 and again from 2015 as transport minister, one of the key portfolios as Erdogan moves to create a “New Turkey” with vast infrastructure projects.
Selvi suggested the only serious difference between the two men is that Erdogan supports the Fenerbahce football side and Yildirim their arch Istanbul rivals Galatasaray.
BERAT ALBAYRAK: Albayrak,38, is one of the young rising stars of the AKP and energy minister, his first cabinet post. He is also Erdogan’s son-in-law, marrying the president’s eldest daughter Esra in 2004.
He was until 2013 chief executive of the Calik Holding conglomerate and Erdogan is considered very close to his father Sadik. Nevertheless, his relative inexperience and inevitable opposition charges of nepotism if appointed may count against him.
BEKIR BOZDAG: Bozdag, 51, was deputy prime minister from 2011 and then justice minister from 2013. A figure who has never once stepped out of line with Erdogan, Bozdag has presided since summer 2014 over the judicial crackdown on allies and interests of the president’s arch enemy, the US-based cleric Fethullah Gulen.
OTHERS: It is possible the decision has not yet been made in private and several other names are also circulating in the press, including two deputy prime ministers Numan Kurtulmus and Yalcin Akdogan and head of the health ministry Mehmet Muezzinoglu.
