Ten years after surging to power for the first time, Uruguay's left is trying to hold onto it Sunday in elections to pick the successor to folksy iconoclast Jose Mujica.
Famous for legalizing marijuana sales, living in a run-down house and donating most of his salary to charity, Mujica remains popular but cannot stand for reelection under term limits barring presidents from serving more than five consecutive years.
He is looking to hand power back to his predecessor, cancer doctor Tabare Vazquez, whose victory in 2004 represented a historic break with 174 years of dominance by the South American country's two traditional parties, the "Colorados" (Reds) and "Blancos" (Whites, now officially called the National Party).
But after 10 years in office, the leftist Broad Front (FA) has lost some of its shine as the new kid on the block and is fending off vigorous challenges from the Blancos and Colorados, which both tend to the center-right.
Vazquez is polling at 44 percent heading into the election -- leading dynamic young newcomer Luis Lacalle Pou of the National Party, who has 32 percent, and Pedro Bordaberry, the son of a former dictator who is running on the Colorado ticket and polling at 15 percent.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent, the election will head to a second round on November 30.
If that happens, analysts predict the Blancos and Colorados will set aside their historic rivalry and join forces, setting up a tightly contested runoff.
The FA is also fighting tooth and nail to hold onto its legislative majority, which polls indicate is at risk.
- Experience vs. youth -
The FA, a leftwing coalition founded in 1971, was banned under Uruguay's 1973-1985 dictatorship and spent another two decades in opposition before finally coming to power.
Vazquez, 74, ran as the candidate of change when he won office in 2004, cruising to victory in a single round as voters punished the two traditional parties for the region's 2002 economic crisis.
He left office with a 60-percent approval rating after getting the economy back on track, passing tough anti-smoking legislation and launching a program to give every public school student a laptop.
But though the FA has presided over 10 years of economic growth -- 4.4 percent last year -- and falling poverty, polls indicate it has lost about five percent of its voters.
And Vazquez has lost the status of exciting new candidate to Lacalle Pou, a 41-year-old lawyer, legislator and former president's son who has soared in the polls since unexpectedly winning the National Party primary in June.
Running on a platform of "positivity" and "fresh air" -- with a ubiquitous, catchy campaign song to match -- Lacalle Pou is radically different from former guerrilla fighter Mujica, living in a posh neighborhood in the capital Montevideo, wearing a shaggy hairstyle that matches his love of surfing and cruising through the campaign with a broad smile.
He has also stolen the mantle of change from Vazquez, who is more than three decades his senior and does not use social networks.
"In 25 years of doing opinion polls in Uruguay, no leader of a traditional party has had the favorable image rating that Lacalle Pou has today," said Ignacio Zuasnabar, head of public opinion research at consultancy Equipos Mori.
"It's really an extraordinary phenomenon."
Rafael Pineiro, a political scientist at the Catholic University of Uruguay, said Lacalle Pou's strength was that "he combines name recognition -- he didn't have to impose his brand -- with the idea of change."
- Crime and punishment -
Bordaberry is meanwhile trying to stage a comeback running on an anti-crime platform.
With robberies up 10 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2014, that pitch has gained momentum despite the fact that Uruguay remains Latin America's safest country.
Bordaberry has been the main backer of a referendum, also on the ballot Sunday, that would lower the age for minors to be tried as adults to 16.
He has also vowed to crack down on drugs if elected, a sharp contrast with Mujica's landmark marijuana law.
Ten years after surging to power for the first time, Uruguay’s left is trying to hold onto it Sunday in elections to pick the successor to folksy iconoclast Jose Mujica.
Famous for legalizing marijuana sales, living in a run-down house and donating most of his salary to charity, Mujica remains popular but cannot stand for reelection under term limits barring presidents from serving more than five consecutive years.
He is looking to hand power back to his predecessor, cancer doctor Tabare Vazquez, whose victory in 2004 represented a historic break with 174 years of dominance by the South American country’s two traditional parties, the “Colorados” (Reds) and “Blancos” (Whites, now officially called the National Party).
But after 10 years in office, the leftist Broad Front (FA) has lost some of its shine as the new kid on the block and is fending off vigorous challenges from the Blancos and Colorados, which both tend to the center-right.
Vazquez is polling at 44 percent heading into the election — leading dynamic young newcomer Luis Lacalle Pou of the National Party, who has 32 percent, and Pedro Bordaberry, the son of a former dictator who is running on the Colorado ticket and polling at 15 percent.
If no candidate wins more than 50 percent, the election will head to a second round on November 30.
If that happens, analysts predict the Blancos and Colorados will set aside their historic rivalry and join forces, setting up a tightly contested runoff.
The FA is also fighting tooth and nail to hold onto its legislative majority, which polls indicate is at risk.
– Experience vs. youth –
The FA, a leftwing coalition founded in 1971, was banned under Uruguay’s 1973-1985 dictatorship and spent another two decades in opposition before finally coming to power.
Vazquez, 74, ran as the candidate of change when he won office in 2004, cruising to victory in a single round as voters punished the two traditional parties for the region’s 2002 economic crisis.
He left office with a 60-percent approval rating after getting the economy back on track, passing tough anti-smoking legislation and launching a program to give every public school student a laptop.
But though the FA has presided over 10 years of economic growth — 4.4 percent last year — and falling poverty, polls indicate it has lost about five percent of its voters.
And Vazquez has lost the status of exciting new candidate to Lacalle Pou, a 41-year-old lawyer, legislator and former president’s son who has soared in the polls since unexpectedly winning the National Party primary in June.
Running on a platform of “positivity” and “fresh air” — with a ubiquitous, catchy campaign song to match — Lacalle Pou is radically different from former guerrilla fighter Mujica, living in a posh neighborhood in the capital Montevideo, wearing a shaggy hairstyle that matches his love of surfing and cruising through the campaign with a broad smile.
He has also stolen the mantle of change from Vazquez, who is more than three decades his senior and does not use social networks.
“In 25 years of doing opinion polls in Uruguay, no leader of a traditional party has had the favorable image rating that Lacalle Pou has today,” said Ignacio Zuasnabar, head of public opinion research at consultancy Equipos Mori.
“It’s really an extraordinary phenomenon.”
Rafael Pineiro, a political scientist at the Catholic University of Uruguay, said Lacalle Pou’s strength was that “he combines name recognition — he didn’t have to impose his brand — with the idea of change.”
– Crime and punishment –
Bordaberry is meanwhile trying to stage a comeback running on an anti-crime platform.
With robberies up 10 percent year-on-year in the first half of 2014, that pitch has gained momentum despite the fact that Uruguay remains Latin America’s safest country.
Bordaberry has been the main backer of a referendum, also on the ballot Sunday, that would lower the age for minors to be tried as adults to 16.
He has also vowed to crack down on drugs if elected, a sharp contrast with Mujica’s landmark marijuana law.
