Fresh tensions with Russia over Ukraine have sparked renewed agonising in France about the sale of two Mistral-class warships to Moscow that has already drawn sharp criticism from London and Washington.
France agreed in 2011 to build and sell the two advanced helicopter assault ships to Russia for a total of 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) with the first scheduled for delivery in October or November and the second in 2015.
However, President Francois Hollande acknowledged in a recent interview in Le Monde daily that "if there was additional tension and it was impossible to find a way out, we would have to think about it."
That interview was carried out before widespread accusations that Russia had sent troops into Eastern Ukraine and European Union leaders on Sunday gave Moscow a week to change course or face a new round of sanctions.
Hollande himself told reporters ahead of a summit of EU leaders on Saturday that "in the face of this escalation in tension, there are new decisions to be taken."
Officially at least, those "new decisions" do not yet affect the Franco-Russian deal.
Hollande said in July that the delivery of the first ship will go ahead as planned and the second would "depend on Russia's attitude."
Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, also in July: "There is a rule that contracts that have been signed and paid for are honoured."
But a source close to the deal, who wished to remain anonymous, said it was "clear that what is happening in Ukraine does not make it completely impossible there will be a change" in French policy.
"One of the elements that could change the situation is the scarcely denied presence of Russian forces in Ukraine and, linked to that, Europe's decision to boost sanctions," added the source.
On Monday, former defence minister Herve Morin, who under ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy had a key role in the initial talks over the deal, said it would be "incomprehensible" if France handed over the warships given events on the ground in Ukraine.
Francois Heisbourg, an expert from the Foundation for Strategic Research think tank, said Hollande would be "obliged to reconsider the decision," despite the penalties it would entail.
- 'Completely inappropriate -
The concern in France -- with its record-high unemployment and stagnant growth -- is not only the financial impact of scrapping the contract with Russia but also the hit its global reputation as a reliable arms exporter would take.
"If we cancel the contract, there would be compensation to pay of around five billion euros and France would lose all credibility as an exporter" just at the moment Paris is trying to sell Rafale jets to India or Brazil, said Pascal Boniface, analyst at the Institute of International Strategic Relations.
The United States has already taken aim at the proposed sales, with President Barack Obama expressing "concerns" and saying it would have been better to "hit the pause button" on the deal.
British Prime Minister David Cameron said it would be "unthinkable" to fulfil such a contract in his own country, sparking a sharp riposte from Paris, which noted there were "quite a few Russian oligarchs in London."
Since the beginning of the summer, some 400 Russian sailors have been training in Western France on the operation of the first warship, named "Vladivostok".
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen trod a diplomatic line, saying in Brussels "this is and remains a national decision, not for NATO to interfere."
"Having said that, I am confident that each and every allied government will take such decisions mindful of the overall security situation and concerns expressed by fellow allies," he added.
There are even precedents for an arms delivery being scrapped due to events.
In 1967, then president Charles De Gaulle cancelled a warship delivery to Israel amid an arms embargo imposed in the wake of the Six-Day war.
Fresh tensions with Russia over Ukraine have sparked renewed agonising in France about the sale of two Mistral-class warships to Moscow that has already drawn sharp criticism from London and Washington.
France agreed in 2011 to build and sell the two advanced helicopter assault ships to Russia for a total of 1.2 billion euros ($1.6 billion) with the first scheduled for delivery in October or November and the second in 2015.
However, President Francois Hollande acknowledged in a recent interview in Le Monde daily that “if there was additional tension and it was impossible to find a way out, we would have to think about it.”
That interview was carried out before widespread accusations that Russia had sent troops into Eastern Ukraine and European Union leaders on Sunday gave Moscow a week to change course or face a new round of sanctions.
Hollande himself told reporters ahead of a summit of EU leaders on Saturday that “in the face of this escalation in tension, there are new decisions to be taken.”
Officially at least, those “new decisions” do not yet affect the Franco-Russian deal.
Hollande said in July that the delivery of the first ship will go ahead as planned and the second would “depend on Russia’s attitude.”
Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said, also in July: “There is a rule that contracts that have been signed and paid for are honoured.”
But a source close to the deal, who wished to remain anonymous, said it was “clear that what is happening in Ukraine does not make it completely impossible there will be a change” in French policy.
“One of the elements that could change the situation is the scarcely denied presence of Russian forces in Ukraine and, linked to that, Europe’s decision to boost sanctions,” added the source.
On Monday, former defence minister Herve Morin, who under ex-president Nicolas Sarkozy had a key role in the initial talks over the deal, said it would be “incomprehensible” if France handed over the warships given events on the ground in Ukraine.
Francois Heisbourg, an expert from the Foundation for Strategic Research think tank, said Hollande would be “obliged to reconsider the decision,” despite the penalties it would entail.
– ‘Completely inappropriate –
The concern in France — with its record-high unemployment and stagnant growth — is not only the financial impact of scrapping the contract with Russia but also the hit its global reputation as a reliable arms exporter would take.
“If we cancel the contract, there would be compensation to pay of around five billion euros and France would lose all credibility as an exporter” just at the moment Paris is trying to sell Rafale jets to India or Brazil, said Pascal Boniface, analyst at the Institute of International Strategic Relations.
The United States has already taken aim at the proposed sales, with President Barack Obama expressing “concerns” and saying it would have been better to “hit the pause button” on the deal.
British Prime Minister David Cameron said it would be “unthinkable” to fulfil such a contract in his own country, sparking a sharp riposte from Paris, which noted there were “quite a few Russian oligarchs in London.”
Since the beginning of the summer, some 400 Russian sailors have been training in Western France on the operation of the first warship, named “Vladivostok”.
NATO Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen trod a diplomatic line, saying in Brussels “this is and remains a national decision, not for NATO to interfere.”
“Having said that, I am confident that each and every allied government will take such decisions mindful of the overall security situation and concerns expressed by fellow allies,” he added.
There are even precedents for an arms delivery being scrapped due to events.
In 1967, then president Charles De Gaulle cancelled a warship delivery to Israel amid an arms embargo imposed in the wake of the Six-Day war.
