His speech was courageous. He’s basically right, despite being diplomatic. Beating the whole idea of terrorism is critically important to defeat such groups. In an environment where poverty and fanaticism are routine, that’s not going to be easy.
Obama said that good governance, ideas and jobs was the way to do so — a virtual shopping list of things which Middle Eastern governments are historically rarely inclined to consider. He even partnered with Putin, no trivial achievement, in a joint approach to the Syria problems.According to Reuters, the new power structure is already meeting some flak from other allies, notably a skeptical France.
The ideas approach, however, is far less equivocal. This is a war in which media, spin, and rationales have joined together in an unholy mix of missing logic.
IS basics
To explain — the IS event horizon has created its own mythologies to suit the agendas of IS and its enemies. The image and the facts are misleading at best. Few if any practical details of the war ever leak out, apart from the atrocities.
Even the theory of IS dubious. You’d think it was some sort of idea which suddenly caught hold in Syria and Iraq. Nothing of the sort. The fact is that IS didn’t “just happen” spontaneously. Organized military groups don’t spring to life out of thin air and take over an area the size of France. IS is comprised of a hard core of trained military cadres, with a stream of volunteers. Large-scale propaganda and business organizations don’t just happen either.
Nothing generates sincerity like money, and IS is profitable, funded by large black markets which, like all organized crime, are virtually immune to law and have never seriously been impeded by law enforcement agencies. It’s a Mafia business model, with a rewards scheme in the form of slaves.
Ideologically, it’s supported by the Sunni anti-Shia movement started by Zaqawi in Iraq, which is tacitly supported by Sunni states. The anti-Western idiom is another ideological crutch. This is basically a Nazi business model, with social media. Let’s face it — if you can sell mass murder, you can sell anything, and that’s exactly what IS has been doing.
IS, in fact, is a virtual inventory of every problem the world has routinely failed to deal with effectively on any level. Human rights defenders also seem to be very few on the ground, when it comes to solutions. It’s the perfect sewer of humanity’s worst, most intractable problems.
From the anti-IS perspective, the military approach is a Vietnam-like, bureaucratic, micromanaged approach. Operationally, there’s more law involved in a drone strike than in consumer law to buy a packet of chips. You can’t fight a hot war with lawyers.
Tactics and history
At the operational level, guerrilla warfare has been the Achilles heel of Russia, the U.S. and others for decades. It usually works against modern armies because the military responses are usually behind events. Hit and run works, most of the time. It’s the natural choice of any terrorist group to use methods which are proven to be effective, and history tends to prove it to be the right tactical option.
In this war zone, the military misconceptions just keep on rollin’ along. There’s been no mention of basic tactics like simply blocking the flow of IS forces around the zone and actually disrupting their operations, for example. They’ve been on tactical holiday for most of this time, except against the Kurds, despite having to move forces over long distances.
There’s no need at all for “boots on the ground” making targets of themselves for years on end, just boots where needed, when needed, then simply leave the danger zone. Hit and run in reverse, in effect, which would make good sense if it hits hard enough at the right places. It’d also be a lot cheaper and far more operationally effective.
The logic of this war and the wars before it
Intellectually, Obama has hit another nail, intentionally or otherwise — it’s the thinking which is driving IS and its opponents which needs to be looked at. IS, like Al Qaeda, use a form of classical thinking which is almost medieval. They take over water supplies, therefore controlling areas in the most direct, and effective, possible sense in any desert area. It’s a multi-thousand-year-old tactic, used first by the Bedouin. They go for dramatic events, cheap ways of raising their profile. Any publicity is good, in this idiom. They intimidate, coerce, and frighten their opponents as much as possible. “Fight or Flight” allows for a choice which means some will run. The Mongols used this tactic, even leaving a way out for their opponents, whom they then hunted down after resistance was broken. Classical thinkers simply stick to their core objectives, which may or may not have anything to do with their statements. In this case, the identifiable objective is expansion, incorporating as many people as possible. It’s not flexible, or easily adaptive, thinking, but it beats inferior logic and/or equally rigid thinking, when it has the initiative.
This may seem like a checklist of the obvious, but it works when opposed by sloppy, endlessly babbling, and ineffective modern thinking. Western thinking, in particular, has a very bad habit of assuming that other cultures use the same logic, or that because of the West’s alleged superiority, Western thinking is somehow better.
Vietnam proved otherwise, both in the French Indochina war and the US Vietnam war. The message obviously still hasn’t got through — don’t assume other cultures respond to things like Hearts and Minds, particularly when they never have. In the Middle East, since the Pharaohs, self-interest is more credible than unprovoked altruism. Prosperity, whether it’s through war or peace, trumps ideologies and religions. The Middle East will never believe in Western altruism, or anything related to it, where more profitable options are available.
Obama has mentioned the unmentionable. He’s pointed out the issues which breed terrorists like M&Ms. He’s had the guts to define the underlying failures which led to catastrophe, and even suggest a new approach. He’s got one thing going for him, if it happens — classical thinking also includes risk assessment and risk avoidance. If this reasonable approach is backed up with real risks for those involved, IS will become a has-been organization, no longer profitable or worth the effort.
