The news and innuendo about the clash coming from both sides is an itchy range of information which needs to be scratched. There’s surprisingly little downplaying. China has allegedly warned India of “another rout like 1962”, hardly diplomatic language.
The border in this area is disputed territory north of Kashmir and has been tricky since modern India and China were constituted in 1947 and 1949 respectively. A “Line of Actual Control” (LAC) was created to defuse the tensions back in the 1960s. Now it’s the LAC which is in dispute. An 11-hour conference of local Chinese and Indian commanders apparently didn’t smooth over the issues.
The LAC is not an international border. The actual border lines are disputed by both sides. The “actual control” regions are those agreed by both sides to be under the control of India or China. Until now, the LAC has been almost a total non-issue for both countries.
The region is 4300 metres minimum above seal level. This is tough country, dry and rocky with no local supply sources for anything. The river is the main asset in dry country. The climate is tough and dangerous, causing casualties for troops every year. Accessibility is another problem. One of the issues in the 1962 war between the two countries was a battle of organization taking months simply to get people and resources to the region.
Pushing India’s buttons – Kashmir
Kashmir, however, is also an extremely sensitive region causing endless hostility and friction between Pakistan and India. The Pakistan-China relationship has always been an issue in itself for India. In this hair-trigger area, another player is hardly likely to be welcomed by India.
There are large numbers of Indian troops in the immediate region. These troops are deployed to deal with separatist issues, occasional live fire incidents with Pakistani troops, and general security.
The LAC, theory and practice
The LAC is a sort of demilitarized zone, in theory. In practice it’s been a series of squabbles, not usually serious. This area wasn’t strategically significant to China, and at best a nuisance issue to India, so it was more a case of where someone put the line or tried to put it somewhere else. There has been a bit of friction historically, but not often involving fatalities.
The incident this month in which 20 Indian soldiers were killed comes at a time when China’s questionable-at-best territorial claims are becoming big issues worldwide. If this new, annoying, policy is expansionism, it’s being done one rock at a time.
India, as the original proudly non-aligned nation in the old Cold War, finds itself with some thankless political choices. Staying out of the Cold War was a good move, but this situation is different. India does not stand to gain anything much by a confrontation with China except a restoration of the status quo. It has nothing at all to gain from it.
That said – India does have something to lose here. China’s extraordinary lack of diplomacy about so many territorial issues is a built-in problem. The default use of military forces in territorial disputes in the South China Sea, and now in Galwan, doesn’t look good for a simple negotiated solution.
Can India take a passive position? Probably not. The effect on Indian public opinion of a serious setback would be a major hit to Indian pride. No Indian government, let alone a strongly Hindu nationalist government, could consider a losing situation.
India’s nationalist government is strongly focused on Indian prestige and status. China’s government is prone to placing a lot of emphasis on power politics. Losing an actual war would look very bad for both governments, so responses to threats are likely to be aggressive on both sides.
The military issues
The Kashmir region is no longer the 1962-era military situation. Quite the opposite; both sides have developed their local military structures and supports. India and China have pretty strong first-line land and air forces which could be used in a conflict. Chinese logistics, in particular, is now much more capable of delivering support in this remote area.
In practice, military escalation is a very dubious option for both sides. A real fight could get messy and be prolonged. Numbers and technologies aren’t the whole story. In such rough country, logistics can get scrambled pretty easily. Support may be there, but can it get to a specific place on time?
The Himalayas are also an unknown quantity for some technologies. China’s high-end air units are definitely world-class, but big mountains give the low-tech side a few viable options. Playing hide and seek with expensive Sukhois in the mountains could be as dumb as it sounds. Mechanized forces are also pretty much road-bound, not necessarily a good thing for any sort of war of movement.
The offensive edge is with China, but the defensive is with India largely due to depth and the sheer scale and types of forces behind the Himalayas in Kashmir. Neither side can assume tactical superiority in such a demanding, fragmented, environment.
Even space technology has a role in this conflict. China can shoot down satellites and disrupt military communications. That, however, would be a significant upgrade of the conflict, quite possibly bringing in support for India from China’s many disgruntled ex-friends and highly annoyed regional partners around the world.
Since neither side has fought any sort of major operation in this region, mistakes are likely. A fast effective move by either side could change the whole situation. It could also come unstuck, making a much bigger mess and generating a wider war across the long, complex, India-China border.
Both sides have something to lose in terms of a negative outcome. There’s a lot at stake, given the China/India dichotomy in economics and achievements on national scales.
India and China both have nuclear weapons, but it would be banal at best to assume a border dispute would be a trigger for using them. Unless something spins badly out of control, it’s very unlikely they’d consider nuclear options.
One thing is undisputed – The game has changed forever. Asia’s two biggest nations have clashed, and the clash is unresolved. If a few rocks in the Himalayas can start a war, this is no trivial problem for the world.
