The disaster scenario hinges on the realities of Brexit, and on what terms Britain will be trading with the rest of the world without the EU customs union laws. Negotiators wanted to persuade the EU for the UK to trade on WTO terms, but failed to reach agreement with the EU on these trade terms.
The Doomsday plans came to light earlier this week. A somewhat skeptical, and much-unimpressed public has been informed that in a worst case Brexit scenario:
• Food, gas and medicine would be in short supply in a fortnight, and in some places, within days.
• Port systems importing food would become unworkable.
• Supplies would have to be airlifted to areas lacking them using chartered aircraft.
• And on the lighter side, “anarchy” is predicted. (Which would be right, if the other points are correct, because the entire national economy would have broken down.)
The UK press has been full of further revelations regarding Doomsday. One of the most critical is that UK ports state that they will “never” be ready for Brexit. The ports are a crucial factor, because they take the vast bulk of imports. If they can’t physically handle and ship materials like food, Brexit is in deep trouble at the most fundamental level.
On the political level, the minority government must also face a new round of amendments to the EU Withdrawal Bill, as the UK law enabling Brexit is known. The amendments have been made by the House of Lords, and if successful, might effectively disempower the current government from proceeding with Brexit. Prime Minister Theresa May, already on shaky ground with her own party after the disastrous recent election, could be in serious trouble. May has further issues in that pro-EU members of her own party could act to remove her from office.
Muddling, But Not “Through”, Or Anything Like It.
The trade and customs issues with Brexit are symptomatic of the high level of ideological dysfunction which has plagued Brexit. The theory of Brexit was independence and sovereignty, the fact has been total lack of preparation and understanding of fundamental issues, at the expense of independence and sovereignty, particularly in all the important areas.
Everything about the realities of Brexit, in fact, seems to come as a surprise to Brexit proponents.
For example:
1. The very unyielding, unsympathetic, European reaction to Brexit.
2. The vast range of practical issues of reconfiguring basic laws and rules.
3. Local issues, like Spain’s demand for Gibraltar, as sticking points in negotiations.
4. Immigration and travel.
5. The movement of foreign finance companies to Europe.
6. Impact on multiple joint ventures with the EU, particularly in high value science.
7. Basic trade and daily business, as per above.
8. Lack of a solid basis for post-Brexit trade and relations.
Napoleon called Britain “a nation of shopkeepers”. He may well still be right. This isn’t shopkeeping. It’s major league national policy, and the Conservatives have fluffed it. They’re obviously way out of their depth. Nothing has gone right, and nothing has turned out as expected. Britain is in a truly lousy, self-inflicted position.
No doubt UK conservatives, like their United States counterparts, don’t mind looking like ridiculous buffoons, but:
The hideous, howling incompetence of the whole Brexit idea, let alone its miserable, whining execution, are grim indicators of a section of British politics which simply has no idea what it’s doing. It doesn’t even know how to do what it thinks it’s supposed to be doing.
The “merits” of Brexit have translated in to possible trade deals, not solid facts. There is no hard model of a future UK outside the EU, and never was. The UK will still have to deal with the EU, on the EU’s terms.
That’s not good shopkeeping. How do you run a shop when you have no idea what you’ll be selling, or to whom, and on what terms?
Time for a second referendum and a move away from the cliff. At this rate, the bluebirds over the white cliffs of Dover won’t have enough birdseed to fly.
