Mexico's ruling party risks losing the governorship of the country's largest state Sunday in elections that observers say are fueling a fiery left-wing populist's prospects of becoming president next year.
Losing the bellwether election in the state of Mexico -- President Enrique Pena Nieto's home state -- would spell disaster for the once-mighty Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, as its own candidate has admitted.
Even if the party ekes out a win, the damage may already be done, simply because the PRI's rivals in the National Regeneration Movement, or Morena -- an upstart leftist party that has never held a governorship -- were never supposed to come this close in the ruling party's bastion.
Political analysts say the tight race has given a huge boost to Morena's founder, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a sharp critic of US President Donald Trump who wants to be Mexico's first leftist president in recent memory.
AMLO, as he is known, has become "the candidate to beat in 2018," said Daniel Kerner of the Eurasia Group consultancy.
The campaign in the state of 16 million people has been a mini-portrait of everything that has Mexicans fed up with Pena Nieto and the PRI.
The ruling party's candidate is Alfredo del Mazo, heir to the dynasty that has ruled the central state for nearly 90 years. His father and grandfather were governors, and the president -- also a former governor -- is his cousin.
To many Mexicans, that smacks of the nepotism and back-room deals that critics say plague the PRI, a broadly centrist party that ruled Mexico as a one-party state from 1929 to 2000.
Pena Nieto ushered the PRI back to power in 2012 with promises to do things differently: end cronyism, crack down on corruption and rein in the horrific violence fueled by the country's war on drugs.
Instead, his presidency has been marred by corruption scandals and a surging murder rate -- not to mention the lackluster performance of Latin America's second-largest economy.
The PRI already lost five governorships in 2016, including in Veracruz, the country's third-largest state.
- Spooked by 'little schoolteacher' -
Facing off against Del Mazo, 41, is a radically different candidate: schoolteacher Delfina Gomez, a Lopez Obrador protegee and former congresswoman who has played up her humble background as a construction worker's daughter.
"They think a little schoolteacher can't do it," Gomez, 54, has said.
"These politicians think they should have all the money, that they're the only ones with the pedigree to govern."
Lopez Obrador's own presidential prospects have blossomed along with Gomez's campaign, say many observers.
Lopez Obrador, 63, also ran for president in 2012 and in 2006. The firebrand populist now hopes the Mexico state vote will be his trampoline to power -- even if Gomez loses.
"There is only upside for Morena in this election," Kerner wrote in a note.
"A Gomez victory, or even narrow loss, would prove and solidify Lopez Obrador's competitiveness ahead of the 2018 presidential elections. In this scenario, the PRI would fall into a very deep crisis."
Del Mazo has acknowledged as much.
"Everything we are, everything we've worked for, everything we've built in all these years is at stake in this election: the future of PRI-ism and this country," he said.
"Within the PRI, they're already warning that if they lose this time, it could be the end," noted political columnist Martha Anaya told AFP.
A win would still not put an end to the PRI's worries. But it would signal the party remains a major player heading into the 2018 elections.
Mexico’s ruling party risks losing the governorship of the country’s largest state Sunday in elections that observers say are fueling a fiery left-wing populist’s prospects of becoming president next year.
Losing the bellwether election in the state of Mexico — President Enrique Pena Nieto’s home state — would spell disaster for the once-mighty Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, as its own candidate has admitted.
Even if the party ekes out a win, the damage may already be done, simply because the PRI’s rivals in the National Regeneration Movement, or Morena — an upstart leftist party that has never held a governorship — were never supposed to come this close in the ruling party’s bastion.
Political analysts say the tight race has given a huge boost to Morena’s founder, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, a sharp critic of US President Donald Trump who wants to be Mexico’s first leftist president in recent memory.
AMLO, as he is known, has become “the candidate to beat in 2018,” said Daniel Kerner of the Eurasia Group consultancy.
The campaign in the state of 16 million people has been a mini-portrait of everything that has Mexicans fed up with Pena Nieto and the PRI.
The ruling party’s candidate is Alfredo del Mazo, heir to the dynasty that has ruled the central state for nearly 90 years. His father and grandfather were governors, and the president — also a former governor — is his cousin.
To many Mexicans, that smacks of the nepotism and back-room deals that critics say plague the PRI, a broadly centrist party that ruled Mexico as a one-party state from 1929 to 2000.
Pena Nieto ushered the PRI back to power in 2012 with promises to do things differently: end cronyism, crack down on corruption and rein in the horrific violence fueled by the country’s war on drugs.
Instead, his presidency has been marred by corruption scandals and a surging murder rate — not to mention the lackluster performance of Latin America’s second-largest economy.
The PRI already lost five governorships in 2016, including in Veracruz, the country’s third-largest state.
– Spooked by ‘little schoolteacher’ –
Facing off against Del Mazo, 41, is a radically different candidate: schoolteacher Delfina Gomez, a Lopez Obrador protegee and former congresswoman who has played up her humble background as a construction worker’s daughter.
“They think a little schoolteacher can’t do it,” Gomez, 54, has said.
“These politicians think they should have all the money, that they’re the only ones with the pedigree to govern.”
Lopez Obrador’s own presidential prospects have blossomed along with Gomez’s campaign, say many observers.
Lopez Obrador, 63, also ran for president in 2012 and in 2006. The firebrand populist now hopes the Mexico state vote will be his trampoline to power — even if Gomez loses.
“There is only upside for Morena in this election,” Kerner wrote in a note.
“A Gomez victory, or even narrow loss, would prove and solidify Lopez Obrador’s competitiveness ahead of the 2018 presidential elections. In this scenario, the PRI would fall into a very deep crisis.”
Del Mazo has acknowledged as much.
“Everything we are, everything we’ve worked for, everything we’ve built in all these years is at stake in this election: the future of PRI-ism and this country,” he said.
“Within the PRI, they’re already warning that if they lose this time, it could be the end,” noted political columnist Martha Anaya told AFP.
A win would still not put an end to the PRI’s worries. But it would signal the party remains a major player heading into the 2018 elections.
