Emmanuel Macron has emerged as the undisputed king of the French centre ground, but shifting sentiment and alliances make predicting this year's presidential election as difficult as ever.
Macron, a 39-year-old former economy minister, was given little chance when he launched a new political movement "En Marche" (On the Move) last year ahead of a vote that was billed as a fight between conservatives and the far-right.
But the pro-European progressive is now a frontrunner to become France's next leader and will draw strength from an alliance with veteran centrist Francois Bayrou, who decided against mounting a rival presidential bid on Wednesday.
The two met on Thursday, with Macron hoping the tie-up will boost his chances after a tricky 10 days that have seen him lose momentum just as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen picks up speed.
Explaining his decision to join forces with Macron, Bayrou said Thursday the two shared a rejection of the traditional French left-right political system.
"We just had the feeling that we could not go on as before," he said, adding that it was "no secret" that the two had had differences in the past but they had put them behind them.
The 65-year-old veteran who finished third in the 2007 presidential election said: "My role is very simple -- I am here to help."
However, Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon picked up key new backing Thursday in the rollercoaster race, as the nation's left aims to forge a united front with polls just months away.
Environmentalist Yannick Jadot dropped out and threw his support behind Hamon, while Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon said he was "open to discussion."
Polls show the three have enough supporters to mount a serious challenge together, which means a potential tie-up between the splintered leftist candidates could produce another upset.
- Expect the unexpected -
While commentators said Bayrou gave Macron's campaign more substance, a poll by Tilder and OpinionWay for LCI television showed that 72 percent of voters believe the tie-up "changes nothing".
Macron's unforeseen rise illustrates the difficulty in forecasting the two-stage election on April 23 and May 7 which is being widely watched by governments and investors around the world.
"It might be that we only see what's going to happen on the night of the election," veteran French political watcher Philippe Braud of Sciences Po university told AFP on Thursday.
Two new polls on Thursday showed far-right leader Le Pen stretching her lead in the first round, where she would win 25-27.5 percent if it were held now.
Le Pen, 48, whose foreign policy speech Thursday was disrupted by a topless protester from the Femen feminist group, is still forecast to lose in the second round -- but she appears to be closing the gap.
In her speech, Le Pen said it was time to pull the plug on the EU, which she described as a "bureaucratic monster".
Saying she wanted to assess France and the world "as they are, not as I would like them to be," she said she would undo the bloc's treaties in order to build of Europe "of free nations".
- Volatile mood -
For now, the most likely winner remains Macron or Francois Fillon, the conservative candidate for the right-wing Republicans party.
But the unstable international background -- from Donald Trump and Brexit to the surge of rightwing nationalism -- is mirrored by an anti-establishment and angry mood in France.
Socialist President Francois Hollande decided not to run for re-election in December after a five-year term marked by terror attacks and stubbornly high unemployment.
Both the Republicans and the Socialist parties discarded the most obvious candidates when choosing their nominee in primary votes.
And Le Pen and Fillon both face investigations into their use of allegedly fake parliamentary aides.
Fillon was described as "completely lost" by former rightwing president Nicolas Sarkozy after they lunched together last week, according to the Canard Enchaine newspaper.
France's Socialists are still haunted by the 2002 presidential election when their divisions led them to be knocked out in the first round, with far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen -- Marine's father -- going through to the run-off.
A leftist alliance would make Macron's route to the presidency more difficult, but he can still claim to be the only centrist in the race.
His platform -- set to be announced fully on March 2 -- is more pro-business and reform-minded than his leftist rivals who have large tax-and-spend programmes.
He is also instinctively pro-European and at ease with multiculturalism in France, whereas Fillon and Le Pen have railed against the threat to French identity posed by Muslims in particular.
But the ex-banker remains inexperienced, having served only two years as an economy minister and the same amount of time as an advisor to Hollande.
burs/js/jm
Emmanuel Macron has emerged as the undisputed king of the French centre ground, but shifting sentiment and alliances make predicting this year’s presidential election as difficult as ever.
Macron, a 39-year-old former economy minister, was given little chance when he launched a new political movement “En Marche” (On the Move) last year ahead of a vote that was billed as a fight between conservatives and the far-right.
But the pro-European progressive is now a frontrunner to become France’s next leader and will draw strength from an alliance with veteran centrist Francois Bayrou, who decided against mounting a rival presidential bid on Wednesday.
The two met on Thursday, with Macron hoping the tie-up will boost his chances after a tricky 10 days that have seen him lose momentum just as far-right candidate Marine Le Pen picks up speed.
Explaining his decision to join forces with Macron, Bayrou said Thursday the two shared a rejection of the traditional French left-right political system.
“We just had the feeling that we could not go on as before,” he said, adding that it was “no secret” that the two had had differences in the past but they had put them behind them.
The 65-year-old veteran who finished third in the 2007 presidential election said: “My role is very simple — I am here to help.”
However, Socialist candidate Benoit Hamon picked up key new backing Thursday in the rollercoaster race, as the nation’s left aims to forge a united front with polls just months away.
Environmentalist Yannick Jadot dropped out and threw his support behind Hamon, while Communist-backed Jean-Luc Melenchon said he was “open to discussion.”
Polls show the three have enough supporters to mount a serious challenge together, which means a potential tie-up between the splintered leftist candidates could produce another upset.
– Expect the unexpected –
While commentators said Bayrou gave Macron’s campaign more substance, a poll by Tilder and OpinionWay for LCI television showed that 72 percent of voters believe the tie-up “changes nothing”.
Macron’s unforeseen rise illustrates the difficulty in forecasting the two-stage election on April 23 and May 7 which is being widely watched by governments and investors around the world.
“It might be that we only see what’s going to happen on the night of the election,” veteran French political watcher Philippe Braud of Sciences Po university told AFP on Thursday.
Two new polls on Thursday showed far-right leader Le Pen stretching her lead in the first round, where she would win 25-27.5 percent if it were held now.
Le Pen, 48, whose foreign policy speech Thursday was disrupted by a topless protester from the Femen feminist group, is still forecast to lose in the second round — but she appears to be closing the gap.
In her speech, Le Pen said it was time to pull the plug on the EU, which she described as a “bureaucratic monster”.
Saying she wanted to assess France and the world “as they are, not as I would like them to be,” she said she would undo the bloc’s treaties in order to build of Europe “of free nations”.
– Volatile mood –
For now, the most likely winner remains Macron or Francois Fillon, the conservative candidate for the right-wing Republicans party.
But the unstable international background — from Donald Trump and Brexit to the surge of rightwing nationalism — is mirrored by an anti-establishment and angry mood in France.
Socialist President Francois Hollande decided not to run for re-election in December after a five-year term marked by terror attacks and stubbornly high unemployment.
Both the Republicans and the Socialist parties discarded the most obvious candidates when choosing their nominee in primary votes.
And Le Pen and Fillon both face investigations into their use of allegedly fake parliamentary aides.
Fillon was described as “completely lost” by former rightwing president Nicolas Sarkozy after they lunched together last week, according to the Canard Enchaine newspaper.
France’s Socialists are still haunted by the 2002 presidential election when their divisions led them to be knocked out in the first round, with far-right leader Jean-Marie Le Pen — Marine’s father — going through to the run-off.
A leftist alliance would make Macron’s route to the presidency more difficult, but he can still claim to be the only centrist in the race.
His platform — set to be announced fully on March 2 — is more pro-business and reform-minded than his leftist rivals who have large tax-and-spend programmes.
He is also instinctively pro-European and at ease with multiculturalism in France, whereas Fillon and Le Pen have railed against the threat to French identity posed by Muslims in particular.
But the ex-banker remains inexperienced, having served only two years as an economy minister and the same amount of time as an advisor to Hollande.
burs/js/jm
