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France awaits Hollande’s next move after poll debacle

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"A rout", "A slap", "A kick up the backside": the headlines in France's newspapers on Monday left President Francois Hollande in no doubt about the scale of his Socialist Party's humiliation at the ballot box.

After a "Black Sunday" that saw both the far-right National Front (FN) and the mainstream opposition make historic gains in nationwide local elections, Hollande was under intense pressure to react swiftly and decisively with a shakeup of his beleaguered government.

Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll said Hollande was virtually certain to make a televised address to the nation, but there was no confirmation from the Elysee Palace, where a pack of reporters had gathered from early morning in keen anticipation of a ministerial bloodletting.

Provisional second-round results of France's local elections
Provisional second-round results of France's local elections
, AFP

A scheduled meeting with popular Interior Minister Manuel Valls, widely tipped for promotion as a replacement for under-fire Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, was "postponed". But Hollande did meet for two hours with Ayrault, government sources said.

The scale of the Socialists' setback in the first electoral test since Hollande's 2012 election was unprecedented.

Marine Le Pen's FN, skilfully rebranded as more than just an anti-immigrant party, won control of 11 towns and more than 1,200 municipal seats nationwide, easily its best ever performance at the grassroots level of French government.

But even more worrying for Hollande was the strong showing of the mainstream Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). The party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy snatched a string of major towns that were once considered bastions of the left in a performance which, if repeated in national elections, would see them sweep back to power with ease in 2017.

French far-right National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen smiles after the second round of local ele...
French far-right National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen smiles after the second round of local elections in Naterre, on March 30, 2014
KENZO TRIBOUILLARD, AFP

The losses of Quimper in Brittany, where one of Hollande's closest allies, Bernard Poignant, was booted out of the town hall, and Limoges, a stronghold of the left for over a century, were telling indicators of how the night went.

"This first test for Francois Hollande has been a veritable catastrophe. The Socialists' gains from the last municipals in 2008 have been completely wiped out," said Frederic Dabi of the Ifop polling institute.

UMP leader Jean-Francois Cope hailed as historic a "blue wave" that saw 155 towns of more than 9,000 residents switch from the left.

"I set the objective of taking control of 50 percent of towns with more than 9,000 inhabitants, we actually reached 62 percent," he said. "It is a historic score. It is not just the government lineup that has to change, it is the entire direction of the country."

- Valls popular but divisive -

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls leaves the Elysee Palace after a cabinet meeting in Paris  on ...
French Interior Minister Manuel Valls leaves the Elysee Palace after a cabinet meeting in Paris, on March 26, 2014
Alain Jocard, AFP

Speculation is rife over the form a government reshuffle would take.

The interior minister is popular in the country but not so much in his own party, where he is regarded with suspicion by many on the left.

Appointing him as prime minister would be a decisive move by Hollande but, as with his switch to a more business-friendly economic policy earlier in the year, it would come at a risk of exacerbating internal party tensions.

These are already acute because of misgivings on the left over Hollande's decision to give priority to austerity measures designed to get the country's budget deficit under control rather than seeking to attack unemployment by trying to stimulate demand, notably through measures to increase the spending power of the poorest sectors of society.

Persistently high unemployment and falling living standards are seen as the principal causes of the Socialists' current woes, but concern over crime and insecurity, coupled with hostility to immigrants and Europe, also helped to fuel the success of the FN and the mainstream right, according to experts.

While most of the focus about the imminent reshuffle has been about who will replace Ayrault -- if he goes -- there is also keen interest in whether Hollande will recall the mother of his four children, Segolene Royal, from the political wilderness.

Royal was the Socialists' presidential candidate in 2007 but her inclusion in Hollande's first cabinet was reportedly blocked because of hostility from Valerie Trierweiler, the president's then girlfriend.

That obstacle has now been removed following Hollande's separation from Trierweiler, and Royal is tipped for a return to the frontline of politics with a major portfolio covering education, sport and youth.

“A rout”, “A slap”, “A kick up the backside”: the headlines in France’s newspapers on Monday left President Francois Hollande in no doubt about the scale of his Socialist Party’s humiliation at the ballot box.

After a “Black Sunday” that saw both the far-right National Front (FN) and the mainstream opposition make historic gains in nationwide local elections, Hollande was under intense pressure to react swiftly and decisively with a shakeup of his beleaguered government.

Agriculture Minister Stephane Le Foll said Hollande was virtually certain to make a televised address to the nation, but there was no confirmation from the Elysee Palace, where a pack of reporters had gathered from early morning in keen anticipation of a ministerial bloodletting.

Provisional second-round results of France's local elections

Provisional second-round results of France's local elections
, AFP

A scheduled meeting with popular Interior Minister Manuel Valls, widely tipped for promotion as a replacement for under-fire Prime Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault, was “postponed”. But Hollande did meet for two hours with Ayrault, government sources said.

The scale of the Socialists’ setback in the first electoral test since Hollande’s 2012 election was unprecedented.

Marine Le Pen’s FN, skilfully rebranded as more than just an anti-immigrant party, won control of 11 towns and more than 1,200 municipal seats nationwide, easily its best ever performance at the grassroots level of French government.

But even more worrying for Hollande was the strong showing of the mainstream Union for a Popular Movement (UMP). The party of former president Nicolas Sarkozy snatched a string of major towns that were once considered bastions of the left in a performance which, if repeated in national elections, would see them sweep back to power with ease in 2017.

French far-right National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen smiles after the second round of local ele...

French far-right National Front (FN) leader Marine Le Pen smiles after the second round of local elections in Naterre, on March 30, 2014
KENZO TRIBOUILLARD, AFP

The losses of Quimper in Brittany, where one of Hollande’s closest allies, Bernard Poignant, was booted out of the town hall, and Limoges, a stronghold of the left for over a century, were telling indicators of how the night went.

“This first test for Francois Hollande has been a veritable catastrophe. The Socialists’ gains from the last municipals in 2008 have been completely wiped out,” said Frederic Dabi of the Ifop polling institute.

UMP leader Jean-Francois Cope hailed as historic a “blue wave” that saw 155 towns of more than 9,000 residents switch from the left.

“I set the objective of taking control of 50 percent of towns with more than 9,000 inhabitants, we actually reached 62 percent,” he said. “It is a historic score. It is not just the government lineup that has to change, it is the entire direction of the country.”

– Valls popular but divisive –

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls leaves the Elysee Palace after a cabinet meeting in Paris  on ...

French Interior Minister Manuel Valls leaves the Elysee Palace after a cabinet meeting in Paris, on March 26, 2014
Alain Jocard, AFP

Speculation is rife over the form a government reshuffle would take.

The interior minister is popular in the country but not so much in his own party, where he is regarded with suspicion by many on the left.

Appointing him as prime minister would be a decisive move by Hollande but, as with his switch to a more business-friendly economic policy earlier in the year, it would come at a risk of exacerbating internal party tensions.

These are already acute because of misgivings on the left over Hollande’s decision to give priority to austerity measures designed to get the country’s budget deficit under control rather than seeking to attack unemployment by trying to stimulate demand, notably through measures to increase the spending power of the poorest sectors of society.

Persistently high unemployment and falling living standards are seen as the principal causes of the Socialists’ current woes, but concern over crime and insecurity, coupled with hostility to immigrants and Europe, also helped to fuel the success of the FN and the mainstream right, according to experts.

While most of the focus about the imminent reshuffle has been about who will replace Ayrault — if he goes — there is also keen interest in whether Hollande will recall the mother of his four children, Segolene Royal, from the political wilderness.

Royal was the Socialists’ presidential candidate in 2007 but her inclusion in Hollande’s first cabinet was reportedly blocked because of hostility from Valerie Trierweiler, the president’s then girlfriend.

That obstacle has now been removed following Hollande’s separation from Trierweiler, and Royal is tipped for a return to the frontline of politics with a major portfolio covering education, sport and youth.

AFP
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With 2,400 staff representing 100 different nationalities, AFP covers the world as a leading global news agency. AFP provides fast, comprehensive and verified coverage of the issues affecting our daily lives.

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