The report, titled “Religious Composition by Country, 2010-2050,” looks at differences in fertility rates and the size of youth populations among the world’s major religions, as well as by people switching faiths.
Islam will grow to an expected 2.76 billion adherents, slightly behind Christianity with 2.92 billion, and far ahead of Hinduism, which comes in third, with 1.4 billion adherents. The report shows that while global population will increase by 34 percent in this period, and Christianity and Hinduism will follow a similar trend, Islam’s population growth will hover above the 70 percent mark.
Moreover, between 2020-2030, India will overtake Indonesia as the country with the largest Muslim population. Pakistan will come in second, and Indonesia, third. Indian Muslims have a fertility rate of 3.2 children per woman, much higher than what is found in Indonesia, and the 2.1 rate typically needed to maintain a stable population. India, which is currently in the midst of controversies regarding religious conversions known as Ghar Wapsi, beef bans and the like, will be home to 310 million Muslims and 1.3 billion Hindus.
“The farther into the future we look, the more uncertainty exists, which is why the projections stop at 2050. But if they are extended into the second half of this century, the projections forecast Muslims and Christians to be roughly equal in number around 2070, with Muslims the slightly larger group after that year,” the Pew report said. By 2050, 10 percent of Europe’s population is expected to be Muslim, as against 5.9 percent currently.
As a percentage of population, those who are unaffiliated to any religion will drop from 16 percent to 13 percent, as will Buddhists who will drop from 7 percent to 5 percent, and followers of folk religions, who will fall from 6 percent to 5 percent. Christianity and Hinduism will stay steady at 31 percent and 15 percent respectively.
