Cruz cruises in Wisconsin
The Fox Business Network poll has Cruz leading the state with 42 percent of the GOP Wisconsin primary voters, Trump with 32 percent and John Kasich trailing with 19.
It’s notable that while the Democrats allot most of their 96 delegates in the state proportionately that is not the case with the 42 delegates up for grabs in the Republican race. It’s a winner-take-most state, which translates to Cruz, should he win, having a chance to make up ground.
At the moment the GOP delegate count has Trump leading with 736 to 463 delegates for Cruz and just 143 for Kasich. There are 946 delegates remaining to be awarded and to gain a victory before the Cleveland convention in July, a candidate needs 1,237 delegates.
Trump stumbles
Here’s the dangerous part of the equation for the frontrunner: Should Cruz win virtually all Wisconsin delegates then Trump will have to take as much as 57 percent of the delegates from here on in to reach 1,237 and gain the nomination before Cleveland.
The problem for Trump is that, to date, despite his lead, he has won only 48 percent of the delegates awarded. Given that Cruz, and to a lesser extent Kasich, is gaining momentum, 57 percent may prove a formidable challenge for the billionaire.
If he does not make it before Cleveland then all bets are off on what might happen there. It would be the first brokered convention for the GOP since 1976 and the rumblings from the party establishment indicate they will do what they can to see another candidate win the day.
Should he lose the nomination on the convention floor Trump has not ruled out running independently. Most recently he told media if he lost the GOP nomination his decision to run independently would depend on how he was “treated” by the Republican Party. He did not elaborate.
Trump has had a tough week at the wrong time. His campaign manager is up on assault charges for an altercation with a female reporter, he angered women on both sides of the abortion issue by stating he feels a woman having an abortion should face punishment (he later retracted) and he had three difficult experiences on state radio talk shows
Trump is behind Cruz among women in Wisconsin by 19 points. Cruz, meanwhile, has had a positive week plus of campaigning and last Tuesday was endorsed by Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker, a GOP heavyweight.
