Eric Grenier’s CBC poll tracker averages up to October 13th show the Liberals leading with 35.1 percent of the vote, up 0.9 percent from the last set of averages just a few days ago. The Conservatives had 31 percent, down 0.7 per cent, and the NDP was at 23.3 down marginally 0.1 percent. Unlike the last set of readings, in the most recent three polls no poll had the Conservatives ahead of the Liberals. This includes a new poll by EKOS who just a few days earlier had the Conservatives still in the lead. Polls and predictions for all the 338 federal ridings can be found at Grenier’s threehundredeight web site.
The new seat average projections at the poll tracker are: Conservatives, 118; Liberals, 136; NDP, 81. The Bloc Quebecois is projected to win three and the Green Party one seat. Only the Conservatives have a projected maximum number of seats above a majority of 170 at 187 but the Liberals are close now at 169. The Bloc Quebecois could win a maximum of 20 in Quebec far beyond its average of just 3 seats.
The most recent poll is by Ipsos Reid for Global News was taken from October 9 to 13. It shows the Conservatives at 31 percent of the vote with the Liberals leading by 6 points at 37 percent. The NDP remains in third at 24 percent.
The Liberals are making a big breakthrough in Ontario, with support now at 43 percent compared with the second place Conservatives at only 30 percent. The NDP is in third with 23 percent. Ipsos senior vice-president John Wright claims: “The Liberals have gained ground taking it away from the NDP no question about that, but the motivation has been to defeat Stephen Harper. You are getting more people recognizing that with Trudeau’s momentum that’s better to join them than to stay with the NDP.”
Overall, however, the poll-tracker averages show that Canada-wide the NDP vote has barely moved and may be stabilizing. It is the Conservatives who are losing votes. Of course, it may be that Wright is correct that some NDP votes will switch to the Liberals if the Liberal candidate in a given riding is in a close race with a Conservative. There is no evidence, however, of any wholesale switch of NDP voters to the Liberals. At present, it is the Conservatives who are experiencing a significant drop in their poll numbers.
EKOS results in their most recent poll from October 10 to October 12, now agree with other recent pollsters in finding that the Liberals are in the lead. Conservatives are shown at 31.1 percent, a decline of 4.4 points from their last polls just a few days ago that had them in the lead. The NDP had a gain of 1.6 percent to 20.6 percent. This is still a low reading for the NDP with other polls having them several points higher. The Liberals were in the lead with 35.6 percent, a gain of 2.5 percent. EKOS contrasts these readings with those at the last election in 2011. The Conservatives had 39.6 percent of the vote; the Liberals, just 18.9. and the NDP 30.6. Both the Conservatives and NDP have suffered significant decline in their support with the Liberals making huge gains.
EKOS notes that the LIberals have made gains both in Ontario and Quebec. Conservatives have the largest percentage support among those over 65. Below that age and among the university educated Liberals have a considerable edge in support compared to the Conservatives. The next few days will show whether the Liberal lead will increase, stall, or decline. We can be reasonably sure that the results for the Liberals will not be as they were in the 2011 election as shown on the appended video.
