The meetings started a day late as representatives of the GNC government based in Tripoli refused to attend unless amendments they have suggested to the fourth draft were considered at the meeting. There is confusion about whether Leon will allow any amendments. The internationally-recognized House of Representatives(HoR) government has claimed Leon will not allow amendments and Leon told the GNC as much. However, on Sunday the GNC wrote a letter to Leon indicating they were ready to attend the Geneva talks — but only if their amendments were considered and incorporated into the draft. The GNC claims that in his reply Leon promised to do so. The approval of the GNC’s conditions happened too late for the meetings to convene on Monday and so the first meeting was today, with another meeting to take place tomorrow. Given that the GNC Tripoli government insists on amendments to the draft, while the opposing internationally-recognized HoR government insists no amendments can be made, it is not clear how an agreement can be reached by the end of August on a new government. One side or the other may decide not to participate as had already happened after Leon amended the fourth draft to take away powers given to the GNC without ever discussing the issue with them or getting their approval. He went ahead in July and had everyone else initial his fifth draft agreement without the participation of the GNC. At these Geneva meetings he hoped to go ahead and have agreement on names for the prime minister and his two deputies.
Leon said: “What Libya is facing now is deeper chaos and division… So I hope all the Libyan actors will be wise to avoid this scenario, to expedite the talks, and to reach an agreement very soon, It is extremely risky to reach October without an agreement because we will be in a more chaotic situation.This is why it is important to have this timeline.”
He hoped there would be a vote on the agreement in September. Should talks drag on, Leon’s appointment runs out in mid-September and in October the mandate of the HoR would run out as well. The entire text of the agreement can be found here.
In his news release, Leon still does not clarify his position on whether his draft can be amended. He claims that the new round of talks will be focused on the annexes which would involve naming a prime minister and his two deputies and then choosing a cabinet for the new government by these three in consultation with dialogue participants. However, the GNC will insist on considering their amendments before they will even participate in this process.
Leon also said he intends to bring together the parallel security track dialogue that involves participation and input from militias. He said some time ago he was meeting with representatives of the Tobruk forces in Cairo. He has yet to report on that meeting. He also met with some commanders from the Tripoli side in Misrata without the approval or agreement of the Tripoli general command, in a clear attempt to divide the Tripoli side. Both the Libya Dawn on the Tripoli side, and Khalifa Haftar and the head of the Tobruk air force on the HoR side reject the agreement. Leon does not explain how he hopes for an agreement between these groups. Haftar considers Libya Dawn fighters terrorists and has vowed never to negotiate with them or accept a cease fire with them.
Leon claims that whether it will be possible to go to the stage of even discusses the annexes and the government would depend on the will of the parties. Leon said: “But UNSMIL, the international community, and I would say even all the Libyans involved in the process, have done everything possible to have all the parties around the table. This is the inclusion principle that is so important to this process; together with consensus and balance.”
This is hardly true. Leon deliberately modified his fourth draft in such a way that he must have known that the GNC could not sign on. He in effect drove them away from the dialogue and at the same time exerted all sorts of pressure to force them to sign on. It didn’t work. It is not clear that whatever he plans at this stage will work either. Indeed it may not even be intended that it work. We will see. The whole process seems to be an elaborate backdrop to further the plans for international intervention in Libya.
The situation is further complicated now by the apparent resignation of the HoR government Prime Minister Abdullah al-Thinni. He resigned on TV but a government spokesperson pointed out that he has not officially resigned as yet. However, he did say that he was submitting his resignation the next day after the interview. The Libya Herald noted that al-Thinni has wanted to quit for some time but also that he had been criticized by Leon as acting against the peace process by setting up a competing oil company and appointing a new Central Bank manager. In the interview his reason seemed to be that he was simply fed up with complaints about his performance made during the interview. Al Thinni himself apparently did not give any specific reason.
