Last talks did not result in a deal
The last round of talks were widely expected to result in a completed agreement that would be signed. However, instead the two sides said that they would consult their respective leadership. The US envoy Zalmay Khalilzad has been working hard for months on the deal and was optimistic a deal could be reached. The indication now is that there is indeed a deal ready to go but has to get the blessing of the Trump administration. This may prove problematic given the planned meeting includes both Bolton and Pompeo both hawks who may not agree to a US withdrawal as the Taliban demands.
A recent article notes: “The peace plan is expected to formalize a significant withdrawal of US forces from Afghanistan — from about 15,000 troops to 8,000 or 9,000 troops — and enshrine official commitments by the Taliban to counterterrorism efforts in Afghanistan, according to the multiple sources familiar with the plan.”
The Taliban have made total withdrawal of all foreign troops a condition for any agreement. Perhaps the partial withdrawal is pending an intra-Afghan agreement on power sharing. The Afghan government has been sidelined so far pending an agreement of the Taliban and the US. The Taliban refuse to negotiate with the Afghan government directly. It is expected there will be intra-Afghan talks once the Taliban US agreement is finalized but Afghan government representatives will take part only in a personal capacity.
The US sent several thousand more troops to Afghanistan in 2017: “U.S. Defense Secretary James Mattis confirmed on September 18, 2017 that the United States will send over 3,000 additional troops to Afghanistan. The extra troops brought the total number of U.S. forces in Afghanistan to more than 14,000 and bolstered the Afghan military in its fight against the Taliban, al Qaeda and the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.”
A possible problem with the agreement
Some reports indicate there will be a ceasefire between the Taliban and the US but not with the Afghan government: “The Taliban’s insistence on only committing to a ceasefire with the US was a serious obstacle during the negotiations, a source close to the talks told CNN. US bilateral security agreements with the Afghan government mean they are obliged to assist their Afghan partners on the battlefield, which could complicate this agreement. Not including a Taliban-Afghan ceasefire in the deal could lead to a situation in which the conflict continues without the Americans playing a significant role, changing the balance of forces against Kabul’s government.”
If the deal actually does contain just a Taliban US ceasefire, then the US will be unable to protect the Afghan government against Taliban attacks. Many charge that the US has completely sold out the Afghan government. However, it remains to be seen if this is actually part of the final agreement. Surely the hawks in the Trump administration would not agree to any such document.
If the meeting goes well deal will be announced on Monday
If the Trump administration agrees to the treaty Khalilzad is expected to head back to Doha, Qatar to meet again with the Taliban delegation. Expectations are that the agreement could be announced on Monday, Afghan Independence Day.
