He contributed a lot to his own downfall. He was being mocked, with some reason, for his lack of style on TV and tendency to answer every question with “we stopped the boats,” referring to illegal migrants to Australia. Many media pundits, including me, were horrified at the endless use of catch phrases, repetition, and lack of agility when confronted by some of Australia’s tougher interviewers, notably ABC’s Leigh Sales. It was truly godawful, embarrassing, PR.
His prime ministership lasted 24 months, almost to the day. The Liberal Party swept to power in a landslide as the Labor Party fell to bits. He’d previously taken over the party from Turnbull in a 42-41 vote, and survived a leadership challenge six months ago, but not this time. After the leadership challenge, party members warned him that he had to lift his game, or face another challenge. He didn’t. He was beaten 54-44 in the party vote. Meanwhile, murderously unpopular budgets and policies have left the party vulnerable to a truly monumental backlash.
Australia’s version of conservative politics is small in many ways. It’s very small-minded and vicious about small things. I grew up with the current generation of parliamentary Liberals in Victoria. It’s basically a business party, much interconnected, and particularly tough on any weaknesses or vulnerabilities at its higher levels. Opportunism and a deal culture are very much part of the mix. Typical of a two-party system, in effect.
The bizarre factor is that Abbott had a history of being the exact opposite to his turgid years as prime minister. He was a party guy, well-supported by the party, an up and comer who did come up to the highest levels of government as a Minister in the previous Howard government. You don’t get to be Liberal leader purely for your cuteness and cuddliness. You have to have some skills and good backing.
Backing, however, is what it’s all about. Key Liberals have deserted Abbott. The party is ruthless with failure. Even John Howard, the current patriarch of the party, was dumped as opposition leader after a bad patch. His backers later returned and he became PM, but he went through the blender, too.
Turnbull is a sort of Liberal maverick in some ways. Some Libs loathe him for basically being himself. Others back him as being a better option than the traditionalists, with whom Abbott was irrevocably linked. Turnbull is a lawyer, and a good one. He was the guy who put the phrase “economical with the truth” into the language. He’s a classier type of Liberal, harking back to the older generation, but much more modern in other ways. He’s also no fool. He’s survived the pits of Liberal Party machinations, and come out on top.
He’s not a routine party room brawler like many parliamentarians, but he is a good, competent fighter, picking his ground. Party fights in the Liberal Party are nasty. They tend to produce lots of media leaks, and start feuds which may last for years. In opposition, in fact, prior to Howard, the party virtually ran through a list of leaders before attaining office.
It’s pretty obvious that Abbott’s backers badly underestimated Turnbull. They didn’t have the numbers, but Turnbull said he’d been working for six months on a challenge, and they apparently didn’t know about it. That in itself is as good a reason as any to lose a party vote.
There’s been a lot of bitching and snitching from Abbott supporters in the media, but the show’s over. Two commentators in particular, Alan Jones of 2GB radio and Andrew Bolt of News Corp, both conservatives, have been waxing loud to “scores” of listeners about the terrible events of last night.
Most of Australia doesn’t care what a few party hangers-on have to say about anything. Abbott had hit the wall, even with his own party. His mistakes were many, and fatal. The end was inevitable.
Turnbull now has the unenviable task of getting the polling back on track and convincing a very dissatisfied, multi-policy-loathing, Australia to vote Liberal next year. The interesting thing is that nobody, even the many critics of current policies, would be entirely surprised if he did reinvent the party.
The question is whether or not the party, not just Tony Abbott, has got the message. Aussies are sick of the sight of politicians, particularly those who don’t seem to understand the realities of life, costs of living, and basic needs. If they don’t understand that, it’ll be six PMs in six years in 2016.
