A recent Israeli air strike (its not clear as of writing what kind of aircraft carried out the attack) on Syrian territory in Quneitra, Syria, near that country’s frontier with the Israeli-administrated and controlled Golan Heights, is reported to have killed 12 Hezbollah and Iranian Revolutionary Guard members.
This has the self-styled “Axis of Resistance” (hence the regimes in Iran and Syria along with the Hezbollah itself) furious and has seen to them vowing to retaliate. While the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has vowed at times to retaliate against Israeli attacks on targets in his country (aimed at very hi-tech sophisticated anti-air and anti-ship missiles Israel did not want Hezbollah to get hold of) Hezbollah has also recently said retaliation will come for Israel’s past attacks and now after this latest strike Iran is vowing to retaliate with the Revolutionary Guards’ chief General Mohammed Ali Jafari repeating the usual mantra about confronting the “Zionist entity.”
Near Israel’s northern frontier with Lebanon military ground forces are reportedly being beefed up and the Israeli Air Force is on high alert. Suspicious activity on the Lebanese border has recently led to road closures and communities being told to exercise caution. A shot fired at such a tense time could see to a potentially dangerous escalation which could lead to another war. So far, however, the present tensions have seen increased threats from the aforementioned “axis” powers, but no action as of yet, just words, and one hopes it stays that way.
In addition one hopes this situation doesn’t escalate into what could amount to a Third Lebanon War. Regardless of what you think of the powers involved this could lead to a humanitarian catastrophe, and bar a full-scale invasion of Lebanon it is doubtful that the Israeli Army can completely defeat and destroy Hezbollah, or do much more than destroy significant amounts of its armaments, and even then Hezbollah will likely be resupplied in the near future. It’s worth remembering that Hezbollah’s rocket arsenal has grown to the extent that it is larger today than it was before the beginning of the last war.
Also, unlike the 2006 summer war between Israel and the Lebanese-based militia, Lebanon is currently doing its utmost to support a staggering one-million Syrian refugees. Just think about how much damage another Israel-Hezbollah war could do to Lebanon. Especially with Syria and Iran directly backing the group which could in turn see to a protracted Israeli bombing campaign in Syria also, likely aimed at the regime and its forces there. Furthermore there is the threat to Northern Israel from missile bombardments, which displaced approximately 250,000 Israelis in 2006.
In fighting Hezbollah Israel would likely target Hezbollah’s infrastructure again (recall that early in the last round of fighting between the two forces that the Israeli Air Force bombed the Beirut to Damascus highway and Beirut Airport itself in order to prevent Hezbollah’s Iranian and Syrian patrons from resupplying it) which, however inadvertent, would devastate Lebanon, both physically and more economically, and likely lead to the displacing of many Lebanese and, already struggling, Syrian refugees alike.
According to an anonymous source quoted by Reuters recently the Israeli strike that saw to an escalation of these tensions apparently took out these senior figures by accident! According to the source (remember Israel has not officially confirmed that it launched the strike in the first place) the Israelis believed they were targeting ordinary militants operating near that volatile frontier. A claim that is certainly credible when one takes into account the present instability in that region and the tense security situation in the Golan Heights (spillover mortar fire from fighting over the horizon in Syria for instance sometimes lands there).
Whatever the intention one certainly hopes this doesn’t escalate for these numerous reasons.
