The main arguments for the UK to leave the EU.
1. The UK signed up for an economic union. However, EU leaders seem bent on ever closer political union and this is something that the British people generally do not want.
2. There is a democratic deficit. The people can replace a government they do not like in the UK through democratic processes. However, there is no way they can change those running the EU as they are commissioners who are appointed not elected. Many feel powerless to change what is happening in Brussels or to get their issues and frustrations listened to.
3. Critics say the EU is obsessed with regulating things; it is inefficient, wasteful and costly. The EU accounts do not pass basic audit tests. Much money disappears into dubious places. The EU parliament, meeting in two places, Brussels and Strasbourg, is extravagant. The UK is a major net contributor. In 2015 the UK paid £13 billion to the EU budget, and EU spending on the UK was £4.5 billion. So the UK’s ‘net contribution’ was estimated at about £8.5 billion.
4. The EU has open borders. Any EU citizen has the right to live or work in the UK. The only way to control immigration is have control of your borders.
The main arguments for the UK to remain in the EU.
5. The country would probably suffer significant economic and trade disadvantages by leaving. Inward investment e.g. from Japanese and US companies would be badly affected. There is no reason why other EU countries should give a leaver favourable trade terms; indeed they might be quite vindictive. The EU represents 45% of the UK’s exports. The UK represents 10% of the EU’s exports so it is not in a strong negotiating position. Vital services businesses could be badly affected and the main financial centre of Europe might move from London to Frankfurt or Paris. With the UK’s weak balance of trade position there could be a run on the pound.
6. A vote to leave might lead to the break-up of the UK. If the UK votes to leave but Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland vote to stay then the pressure to split the Union would be very strong.
7. The divorce will be very messy. It will take years of uncertainty to negotiate the separation from the EU and if we have to deal with the break-up of the UK at the same time then the complications will be enormous. Uncertainty is bad for business and investment.
8. For all its faults (and they are many) the EU is a force for liberal democracy and human rights in the world. When you consider what is happening in Russia, China and the Middle East we need a strong Europe to uphold Western values. A British exit (the so-called Brexit) would seriously weaken the EU and President Putin would be delighted to see that happen.
There is a strong emotional case to leave and a strong economic case to remain. My heart says leave but my head says stay. On balance I think the economic arguments hold sway. The risks of leaving are just too great. The UK should remain.
