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article imageNew Democratic Party losing momentum in Ontario election for now

By Ken Hanly     Jun 2, 2018 in Politics
Toronto - The New Democratic Party (NDP) has stalled in its drive to increase its popular vote beyond that of the Progressive Conservatives (PCs). The NDP needs to end up considerably above the PCs in popular vote to gain the most seats.
The CBC poll tracker average of polls show the PCs and the NDP neck and neck in the polls, However the PC votes are much more efficient in winning seats so the seat distribution is skewed in favor of the PCs. With less than a week to go before the election on Thursday June 7 the NDP needs to pick up momentum again to have any hope of winning the most seats.
Poll tracker results
The popular vote between the NDP and the PCs is virtually tied. In some recent polls the NDP had a small lead. The PCs lead with 37.2 percent of the vote while the NDP has 37.1. The Liberals have just 19.1 per cent.
Since the last update, the PC vote actually rose 0.6 percent whereas the NDP and the Liberals both fell 0.2 percent. This is not a good sign for the NDP that needs to gain over the PCs. The Green vote stayed the same at 5.1 percent. Probably some Green votes will actually go to the NDP to try and stop Ford come election day. The Liberals are now at a historic low.
The seat distribution is by far in favor of the PCs who are expected to win 72 to just 51 for the NDP. The Liberals as of now are expected only to win one seat, after being the ruling party. Wynne appears to have run a good campaign with some analysts claiming she won the final debate. A party needs to have at least 8 seats to be officially recognize as a party in the legislature.
The PCs have an 85.4 percent probability of winning a majority government. There is just a 5 percent probability that they end up with a minority government. There is only a 6.3 percent likelihood that the NDP wins a majority and a 2.8 percent chance that they win a minority. As the Liberals are likely to win only a very few seats, it is likely that whoever wins will have a majority.
The PCs are ahead in seats in the Greater Toronto Area and Hamilton and Niagara areas where they could end up winning twice as many seats as the NDP even though the latter has a slight edge in the polls. The PCs also lead in eastern Ontario while the NDP leads in northern and southwestern Ontario, as well as in Toronto. The PC and NDP are fighting over Liberal seats in Toronto and if the PCs win many seats there it could give them the majority they seek. The Liberals are trying to salvage a few seats in Toronto and eastern Ontario.
Liberal leader Wynne admits she cannot win
Today in an emotional speech Kathleen Wynne admitted that she will no longer be premier after the election on June 7. She pleaded with voters to elect Liberal candidates to prevent the NDP or PCs from securing a majority. Present polls show that is an unlikely outcome.
The Liberal leader said during a Toronto campaign stop: "Even though I won't be leading this province as premier, I care deeply about how it will be led. People want change, but by and large they're confident about where Ontario stands and where Ontario is headed. For this reason — I heard this over and over again — many voters are worried about handing a blank cheque to either Doug Ford or the NDP."
More about Progressive Conservatives in Ontario, Ontario NDP, Ontario Liberals
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