The CBC Poll Tracker shows the widest gap between first and third place since Sept. 8. The Conservatives have 32 per cent of the popular vote with the NDP now just 27.6 per cent. The Liberals are now in second with 30.4 per cent. The Conservatives have made the greatest gains at 1.3 per cent. The NDP is the big loser with a decline of 1.5 per cent. The Liberals, although now challenging the Conservatives and in second place also had a slight decline of 0.4 per cent. The Conservative showing is their highest average since last May while this is the lowest for the NDP since the same month. The Green Party has 4.7 per cent of the vote and is predicted to win one seat. The separatist Bloc Quebecois in Quebec is improving with 17.5 per cent support in the province. It is now predicted to win one seat.
The recent averages are up to September 27. The Poll Tracker uses a weighted average of recent polls in coming up with its figures. The methodology used for the poll tracker by Eric Grenier can be found at his website. The same site has predictions for all the federal ridings and shows the likelihood that the leading party will win.
The new seat projection for Sept. 27 also shows the NDP in third place. The Conservatives are projected to win 128 seats with a range of between 112 and 152. The Liberals are now in second with 110 seats and the range 82 and 110. The NDP are projected to win 98 with a range of 93 to 115. Even at this stage the third place NDP could win 115 if it does its best and the first place Conservatives just 112 if it does its worst. The Conservatives are still not that close to the 170 needed for a majority.
The two most recent polls are by Abacus Data from 9/24 to 9/27 and Nanos/Globe from 9/25 to 9/27. The Nanos poll gives the Conservatives 33 per cent support with the NDP at just 26.9 and the Liberals at 31.6. The Abacus poll also places the NDP in third with the Conservatives leading with 32 per cent, the Liberals at 29 and the Conservatives at 32. Other earlier but recent polls also put the NDP in third. Between September 4 and September 11, several pollsters put the NDP above 30 percent and a Forum poll even had them at 36 percent and clearly in the lead.
One might think that the Liberals would be the beneficiaries of the NDP drop, but the Liberal support has changed little since earlier in September. It is the Conservatives who show gains ranging from two to seven points across the different pollsters from their polls earlier in September. The election is not until October 19. The leadership in the polls could change several times yet before then. However, at present, the Conservatives appear to be gently floating upwards and the NDP are in a down draft. I have appended last night’s foreign policy debate.
