Unless there is a huge final swing towards the New Democratic Party (NDP) Ford appears certain to win a majority government. There appears to be little sign of a stop Ford campaign evident in the very last polls with the PCs adding votes while the NDP is actually losing them.
Final Ontario poll tracker update
The PCs are now clearly ahead even in the popular vote with 38.7 percent to just 35.5 for the NDP. The Liberal have 19.6 percent. The Greens have 4.9 percent and other parties 1.3.
Most significant is that the NDP has not gained momentum but the end but is losing votes. The PCs gained 0.9 percent almost a whole percentage point. On the other hand the NDP lost 0.7 percent. The Liberals actually gained slightly 0.3 percent. There is no sign of more Liberals voting NDP to stop Ford. The Greens lost marginally 0.3 percent as did other parties 0.2. The NDP appears not to be taking votes from the Greens or minor parties.
The PCs are now slated to win 78 seats to only 45 for the NDP and just one for the Liberals. No other parties are expected to gain seats although the Greens have a chance in one constituency.
There is now an 89.7 percent probability of the PC winning a majority and only a 3.9 percent chance they will get the most seats but not a majority. The NDP has only a minimal 3.3 percent chance of winning a majority and a 2.3 percent chance of winning the most seats but not a majority.
PC vote efficient at winning seats
To win more seats than the PCs, the NDP has to do much better in the popular vote than the PCs as the PC vote is more efficient than that of the NDP in winning seats. However, the polls show no sign of this but have ended up with the PCs ahead of the NDP in the popular vote.
In the crucial Greater-Toronto-Area-Hamilton-Niagara, the Conservatives are expected to win twice as many seats as the NDP even though the PCs are only marginally ahead in the popular vote in the area.
The PCs also lead in eastern Ontario and a in close races with the NDP in southwest Ontario. The NDP still leads in northern Ontario but there are not a large number of seats there. They still lead in Toronto as well. The Liberals have some strength in Toronto and eastern Ontario but are unlikely to win the 8 seats required to be officially recognized as a party.
The odds of seeing a minority government when the Liberals are expected to win at most a few seats is very low.
