The NHC’s 10 p.m. update shows that the tropical system is near to being called Tropical Cyclone Two. This potential tropical weather system will bring heavy rains and winds to the US Gulf Coast. Although many computer models have shifted the landfall off the center towards Louisiana, some of its effects will be felt as far as Houston, Texas.8
The tropical system is located 120 miles (190 kilometers) Southeast of the mouth of the Mississippi River and about 240 miles (385 kilometers) southeast of Morgan City, Louisiana. There are maximum sustained winds of 30 mph (45 kph)/
The present movement of the tropical system is to the west-southwest at about 9.0 mph (15 kph). The minimum central pressure is 1009 MB…29.80 inches. The storm system is expected to make a shift to the west on Thursday – followed by a west-northwest motion on Friday and a northwestward motion by early Saturday. The system is predicted to reach the Louisiana coast by this weekend as Category 1 Hurricane Barry.
Latest information on Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. No changes to ongoing watches. The system is still expected to gradually gain strength south of Louisiana Thursday and Friday and make landfall along the coast on Saturday. lawx mswx BEXPVQOc5a
— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) July 11, 2019
Expect a dangerous storm surge with this storm. Normally dry areas near the coast will be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. A storm surge of from 3.0 to 6.0 feet is expected at the mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City. A storm surge watch is in effect from the mouth of the Pearl River to Intracoastal City. A hurricane watch is on effect from the mouth of the Mississippi River westward to Cameron.
KATC is reporting that offshore oil operators in the Gulf of Mexico have already evacuated platforms and rigs.
A mandatory evacuation was ordered for the east bank of Plaquemines Parish starting at 6 a.m. Thursday morning. Parts of the west bank are also under a mandatory evacuation, spanning from the Oakville floodgate south to Venice. Please heed the evacuation orders.
Additionally, Mayor David Camardelle of Grand Isle issued a voluntary evacuation just after 3 p.m. CDT, as a precautionary measure.
Heavy rainfall and flash flooding are a big concern with Potential Tropical Cyclone Two. Here’s the NWSWPC additional rainfall forecast during the next 7 days. Six to 12 inches of rain are expected, with isolated totals to 18 inches. More: PTC2 D0Mx2eJeBd
— National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) July 10, 2019
There will be a lot of rainfall associated with this system. The tropical system will produce total additional rain accumulations of 10-15 inches near and inland of the central Gulf Coast through early next week with isolated maximum rainfall amounts of 20 inches.
Louisiana Governor John Bel Edwards on Wednesday declared a state of emergency for the impact of the storm, which is expected to develop into Hurricane Barry by the time it makes landfall. Again, there is the fear that the Mississippi River could overtop the levees.
The river’s flood stage will make the storm’s impact even worse on Louisiana, particularly if the brunt of the storm surge hits the southeastern part of the state. The storm surge could raise water levels up 3 feet in New Orleans and could overtop river levees in Plaquemines Parish, the governor said.
