These figures could, however, change depending upon what the incoming Trump administration chooses to do in relation to energy policy. Trump himself is an advocate of fossil fuels, taking a position contrary to his immediate predecessors and one out-of-step with most other world leaders.
The current trajectory for U.S. energy policy come from the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook. The report states: “The United States has been a net energy importer since 1953, but declining energy imports and growing energy exports make the United States a net energy exporter by 2026 in the Reference case projection.”
However, the report carries a disclaimer, with a nod towards the new president: ” Energy market projections are subject to much uncertainty, as many of the events that shape energy markets and future developments in technologies, demographics, and resources cannot be foreseen with certainty.”
Even with no change in policy, Scientific American, in reviewing the reports a trend that will worry environmentalists: “U.S. is unlikely to make significant gains in reducing greenhouse gas emissions to meet its obligations under the Paris Climate Agreement.” U.S. energy related carbon emissions peaked at 6 billion metric tons in 2007; today they stand at 5.2 billion metric tons, having been stable for several years. This flattening out means that the goals of the Paris agreement cannot be met (according to the U.S.’s own Clean Power Plan).
