A tropical storm is forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico and strengthen into a hurricane before striking Florida’s Gulf Coast Tuesday night.
Late Sunday morning, Tropical Depression 10 strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia. It was meandering around just to the east of Mexico’s Yucatan peninsula, packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph).
This erratic movement is expected to continue into early Monday when the system is expected to -pick up steam and start moving northward toward the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
“The storm is expected to continue to strengthen in the southern and eastern Gulf of Mexico in the coming days as it becomes more organized amid very high ocean water temperatures and low wind shear,” said AccuWeather Meteorologist Brandon Buckingham.
Speaking of those high ocean temperatures – Several locations in Florida, including Key West, Fort Myers, Miami, Tampa, and Sarasota recorded their warmest month on record in July, and the Southeast Regional Climate Center is predicting that more records may be broken again this month.
Warm water temperatures in the Gulf of Mexico have contributed to high humidity and what feels like triple-digit temperatures. NOAA lists the data for ocean temperatures every day, and it is an interesting read. The eastern Gulf of Mexico is hovering in the high 80s with little or no wind shear evident.
At 1:00 p.m. CDT on Sunday, Idalia was moving toward the north near 2 mph (4 kph), and it is likely to meander near the Yucatan Channel through tonight. A faster motion toward the north is expected on Monday, bringing the system over the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
Maximum sustained winds remain near 40 mph (65 kph) with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast, and Idalia is expected to become a hurricane by Tuesday.’
Computer models suggest Idalia will make landfall anywhere from the Panhandle to the Tampa Bay Area as a hurricane, but it’s not yet clear how powerful the storm will be.
“Models are beginning to come into agreement on a track to our west but there remains a high degree of uncertainty regarding how close the system comes to the Tampa Bay area,” meteorologist Tony Sadiku noted.
“Everyone along Florida’s Gulf Coast should prepare for potentially significant impacts from this storm, whether direct or indirect,” Sadiku warned.
