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The world has nine years to avert catastrophic climate warming

Scientists say gas projects discussed at the U.N. climate conference would seriously threaten the world’s climate goals

Healthcare workers die-in at the front of the Victorian Parliament, part of Day 1 of Extinction Rebellion's Autumn Rebellion in Melbourne.. Credit - Matt Hrkac, Geelong/Melbourne, Australia. (CC BY 2.0)
Healthcare workers die-in at the front of the Victorian Parliament, part of Day 1 of Extinction Rebellion's Autumn Rebellion in Melbourne.. Credit - Matt Hrkac, Geelong/Melbourne, Australia. (CC BY 2.0)

Scientists say gas projects discussed at the U.N. climate conference would seriously threaten the world’s climate goals.

A major study released on Friday by the Global Carbon Project suggested that CO2 emissions “continued to increase by 1.0 percent” through 2022, bringing levels above those recorded in 2019.

“The reality we are facing is that global emissions of CO2 are not decreasing,” said Professor Jeremy Moss, the UNSW lead of the Climate Justice Project.

Another study, released on Wednesday, warns that new gas projects, launched in response to Russia’s war with Ukraine, along with the global energy crunch, would consume 10 percent of the remaining carbon budget, making it all but impossible to reach the Paris climate goals, according to the Washington Post.

“Instead of being on track to reduce emissions, the latest data from The Global Carbon Budget 2022 shows global fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise by 1.0 percent in 2022. If current emissions levels persist, there is a 50 percent chance that warming of 1.5°C will be exceeded in nine years, by the end of the decade,” said Professor Moss.

According to the research paper, Vice reports, emissions from coal, oil, and gas are also expected to see an increase this year, even though some of the world’s biggest emitters, like China, are recording slight decreases. 

But it still comes down to the burning of fossil fuels. Emissions in both the United States and India have increased compared to last year. The European Union will probably report small declines, according to the report.

Latest climate plans worlds away from 1.5C target: UN
The UN’s Environment Programme says national plans to cut carbon pollution amount to ‘weak promises, not yet delivered’ – © AFP

Here are some interesting figures to think about: to keep the world within the 1.5 degrees Celsius range, we cannot release more than 380 billion tons of carbon dioxide equivalent over the coming decades. This amount is equal to about nine years of current emissions.

To avoid warming beyond 1.5C will require the world to curb emissions by about 1.4 billion tons per year, comparable to how much emissions shrank in 2020 due to the economic slowdown during the coronavirus pandemic.

Samantha Hepburn, research director of the law school at Deakin University, and director of the Centre for Energy and Natural Resource Law says, “These figures highlight the fact that over the past few years, emissions reductions have largely been responsive to the social and economic changes generated by the pandemic, the war, and distributional obstructions.”

COP27 response to warnings

Today’s warning comes right behind the near-monthly reminders of the Earth’s imminent destruction. Yet, leaders at the U.N. Climate Change Conference have advocated for natural gas as a “transition fuel” that would ease the world’s switch from fossil energy to renewables.

One of the key results of the Russian invasion of Ukraine has been record profits for fossil fuel companies. Surging gas prices have stimulated investments in finding new resources and developing gas fields, for example, in Mediterranean offshore sites, and in the Middle East, according to Science Daily.

At least four new gas projects have been reported or announced in the past 10 days, with several African countries pledging to expand export capacity and supply more fuel to Europe.

Representatives from both Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, the host of next year’s climate conference, have made clear they view COP27 as an opportunity to promote gas.

Gas is not a good low-carbon energy source, period. However, with data showing the increase in the use of renewables around the globe, fossil fuels are on the way out.

According to a review of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission data(FERC), the latest forecast suggests that installed natural gas capacity will begin to decline by 2025 in the U.S. while solar and wind continue to rapidly expand.

Julia Pongratz, a climate scientist at the University of Munich and an author of the Global Carbon Budget report says if fossil fuel use does not dramatically decline, “in a few years we will no longer be able to say it’s possible,” Pongraz said. “And then we would need to look back and say we could have done it and we didn’t. How do we explain that to our kids?”

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We are deeply saddened to announce the passing of our dear friend Karen Graham, who served as Editor-at-Large at Digital Journal. She was 78 years old. Karen's view of what is happening in our world was colored by her love of history and how the past influences events taking place today. Her belief in humankind's part in the care of the planet and our environment has led her to focus on the need for action in dealing with climate change. It was said by Geoffrey C. Ward, "Journalism is merely history's first draft." Everyone who writes about what is happening today is indeed, writing a small part of our history.

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