Utility-scale solar and wind each added more generating capacity than natural gas during the first nine months of 2022.
According to a SUN DAY Campaign review of Federal Energy Regulatory Commission data(FERC). FERC’s latest three-year forecast suggests that installed natural gas capacity will begin to decline by 2025 while solar and wind continue to rapidly expand.
Solar (6,751 megawatts (MW)) and wind (6,328 MW) each provided more new generating capacity during the first three quarters of this year than did natural gas (6,086 MW), Besides natural gas, the balance came from nuclear power (17-MW) and oil (8-MW). No new capacity was reported for 2022 from coal.
According to Solar Power World, utility-scale solar provided 82.7 percent (487 MW) of the new capacity reported in September alone. Also added in September was 99 MW of new natural gas capacity and 3 MW of new hydropower.
These recent additions bring renewable energy’s share of the total U.S. available installed generating capacity up to 26.96 percent.
- wind – 11.23 percent
- hydropower – 8.05 percent
- solar – 6.14 percent
- biomass – 1.22 percent
- geothermal – 0.32 percent
In comparison, five years ago, renewables’ share was 19.84 percent, and 10 years ago, renewables'[ share was 14.79 percent.
FERC forecast for natural gas
FERC’s forecast for natural gas capacity over the next three years is nothing less than startling. FERC anticipates 107 units of “high probability” additions by natural gas by September 2025 totaling 17,062 MW of capacity.
However, there will also be “retirements” of 130 units totaling 17,489 MW. If that materializes, installed natural gas capacity would actually decline, very possibly indicating that natural gas generating capacity has now peaked
If just FERC’s latest “high probability” projections materialize, by September 2025, renewable energy sources would grow from a bit over a quarter today to nearly a third (32.37 percent) of the nation’s total available installed generating capacity.
