As a burgeoning global superpower, China is influencing foreign policy in every corner of the world. But by rejecting democracy and ramping up its military, how will it influence the West in the future?
Digital Journal — In the spring of 2008, the world will come to China for the Beijing Olympics. It’s an ironic twist — for the past few years, much of China has spread across the world, in trade and political terms. The nation is the third-largest exporter in the world, behind the U.S. and Germany. Its political manoeuvres have influenced Sudan, Lebanon, Russia and North Korea. So during the 2008 Olympics, all eyes will be turned to watch athletic prowess display itself on a world stage winning incredible buzz.
Welcome to the next global superpower. Believe the hype — even if it means China’s ambitions threaten to kill democracy at home and spread its own brand of revolution abroad.
Let’s start with how China is flexing its muscle: its economy has grown 10 per cent annually since 1990; its trade surplus with the rest of the world topped at $102 billion at the end of 2006; and in more chilling news, in December China signed a $16 billion deal with Iran to buy natural gas and create more oil fields. Almost quietly, China is expanding its military numbers and is developing long-range missiles that could hit America. If other nations want to find a mentor for economic growth and intimidating aggression, look no further than China.
Kenneth Lieberthal of the University of Michigan, who was senior director at the National Security Council Asia desk under President Bill Clinton, recently told Time:China is thinking in much more active terms about its strategy, not only regionally, but globally, than it has done in the past. We have seen a sea change in China’s fundamental level of confidence.
That confidence is translating into bold chest-puffery, leading to the West becoming increasingly concerned about another superpower rising to take a cut off the pie. At the G8 Summit in June, China was labelled a “major emerging economy” and officials constantly questioned China if it was interested in becoming a full-fledged member of the G8. Playing coy, Chinese politicians didn’t say anything about the matter.
China, an emerging global superpower, boasts 20 per cent of the world’s population.
Instead, President Hu Jintao is happy with “staying the course,” to put it in American terms. He’s not looking to change any aspect of China’s progress, be it moving to a market economy or shedding the nation’s Communist roots. In a speech on Monday, Hu let loose the usual Community Part rhetoric:Reform and opening to the outside world are a requirement to liberate and develop socialist productive strength and create systems and mechanisms with vigor.
As much as the West may enjoy China’s productivity that keeps those Wal-Mart goods at bargain prices, everything that’s “Made in China” isn’t always enticing. For instance, every 24 toy recall issued in 2007 came from Chinese manufacturers. And Chinese regulators have shut down 180 food plants after finding toxic contaminants in candy, pickles and other common foods. China’s exports might be finding favour with big-box retailers in the U.S., but they’re upsetting stomachs in more ways than one.
A toxic supply chain is only the beginning. China’s worldview is radically different than the West’s, stiff-arming democracy and American values. Free-thinking liberalism isn’t on the Chinese radar, as it hasn’t been for its 5,000 year history. China prefers to focus on society as a clan instead of giving rights to the individual. The middle class is not itching for government reform. As Tom Doctoroff writes on the Huffington Post:Yes, [Chinese] demand protection of financial interests. They rail against corruption, particularly at the provincial and municipal levels. They might even stage a protest or two. However… any weakening of central command militates against stable economic advancement. Indeed, the majority of young, educated mainlanders endorse President Hu Jintao’s technocratic savvy and support his government’s authoritarianism.
Hu Jintao, president of the People’s Republic of China meeting with U.S. president George W. Bush. – Photo courtesy Wikipedia
The fallout from this nationalism is a chill in U.S.-China relations. “It’s clear China is aiming for a leadership position and that’s leading to somewhat strained relations,” says Oded Shankar, author of The Chinese Century: The Rising Chinese Economy and its Impact on the Global Economy. “Many people in the U.S. bought into the concept of a new world order where there’s one major power and they’re reluctant to accept reality of more than one country running the show.”
The U.S. defence corps is particularly anxious about China’s militarization boom. A recent Pentagon report complained about China’s military might and how it may be used. As the Guardian found:The Pentagon took particular exception to the Chinese navy’s development of a new fleet of five Jin-class ballistic missile submarines with enhanced, long-range nuclear weapons capabilities… and China’s growing ability to counter US battlefield, space and cyberspace technologies in support of so-called ‘area denial’ strategies.
China is urging its cities to fund their own development, such as Shanghai’s $2.6 billion initiative to strengthen its economy. – Photo by Fumiko (doraemon), courtesy Wikipedia
And as Time discovered, China has showed a 15 per cent rise in military spending in the past year. Anyone who watches videos of Chinese soldiers marching through city squares realizes this isn’t a ragtag group of conscripted infantrymen; China is spending money on training, advanced weaponry and global peacekeeping missions to further emboss its public image.
But it’s a hard show to pull off. China’s deplorable human rights record has placed the nation in the crosshairs of more than one libertarian watchdog. Recently, the Chinese public was shocked to learn hundreds of children were forced to work as slaves in the brick kilns of Shanxi province. And it’s well-known how Chinese authorities censor any dissenting views published both in print and online.
The Economist categorizes China’s at-home policies as “Leninist,” writing:
The state’s instinct is to co-opt those within the empire who question the political orthodoxy—or if that does not work, to deal with them harshly. Thus the Dalai Lama is vilified, and Tibetans are demeaned in their own land. Over Taiwan, China reserves the right to nuke what it says are its own people.
The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) during a training exercise. – Photo courtesy Wikipedia
And in this green-friendly era we’re all currently courting, China faces another problem: its reputation as the top polluter in the world, just edging out the U.S. Essentially, China says its economic growth shouldn’t be undermined by global efforts to combat climate change. It’s a clear indication how backward China is in terms of a massive initiative many other countries have joined, but that’s a hallmark of the Chinese governmental style: stick to its guns, refuse to listen to Western advice, and let the ends justify the means.
Shankar, the author on China, predicts China will rise to superpower status by 2024. His prediction surely scares nations like Taiwan, whose long-standing feud with China threatens peace in the region. North Korea has also been a key ally but China has acquiesced to U.S. pressure to cool its friendship with the rogue nation. Asia might be following China’s moves carefully, but the West should also be wary of how powerful China becomes.
In this case, unlike North Korea and Iran, there is little threat of military intervention or an escalating combat. If anything, the U.S. is considering a trade war. How the West adapts to emerging powers will be a consideration that will likely ripple to all four corners of the world in years to come. China has escalated into the type of economic giant whose every step can be heard thousands of miles away, for better or worse.
This article is the final part of Digital Journal’s in-depth series of countries emerging as threats to the U.S. To see the previous report on Iran, click here, and to read the report on Russia, click here.
