Portugal votes on Sunday in the first round of a presidential election in which a far-right candidate could for the first time make it to a run-off ballot, but with the final result hard to predict.
Polls predict Andre Ventura, leader of the far-right Chega (“Enough”) party, could top the first round but would lose round two, regardless of which of the other candidates he encounters there.
This would be the first time in four decades that a candidate has not won outright in the first-round ballot, which requires securing more than 50 percent of the vote.
Among the record 11 candidates standing, only five have a realistic chance of making it to the decisive vote on February 8 to succeed conservative incumbent Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa.
In addition to Ventura, 43, they are: Socialist Antonio Jose Seguro, 63; liberal European Parliament lawmaker Joao Cotrim Figueiredo, 64; right-wing government candidate Luis Marques Mendes, 68; and Henrique Gouveia e Melo, a retired admiral who led Portugal’s Covid vaccination campaign.
Pollsters predict any of the four of Ventura’s potential rivals would trounce him in a second-round vote.
Polling stations open at 8:00 am (0800 GMT) on Sunday and exit polls will be announced at 8:00 pm.
Chega won 22.8 percent of the vote and 60 seats in a general election last May, overtaking the Socialists to become the biggest opposition party.
The president of Portugal has no executive powers but can, in times of crisis, dissolve parliament, call elections or dismiss a prime minister.
– Popularity test –
Ventura sees Sunday’s vote mainly as a test of his popularity, according to experts, who believe that he has his sights set on eventually running the country as prime minister.
“Andre Ventura is running to keep his voter base,” said Antonio Costa Pinto, a political scientist at Lisbon University.
A stronger far right would add pressure on the minority government of right-winger Luis Marques Montenegro, which relies on Chega for support for the implementation of some of its policies.
“Another solid result for the far right would confirm its domination over the political landscape,” Teneo, a consulting firm, said in a note.
Ventura, who has promised to put Portugal “in order”, urged the other parties on the right not to put “obstacles” in his way should he find himself facing the Socialist candidate, Seguro, in the run-off.
Seguro, meanwhile, said he is the only one capable of defeating Ventura’s “extremism”.
Portugal, a country of nearly 11 million inhabitants, is a member of the European Union and the eurozone. It accounts for around 1.6 percent of the EU’s gross domestic product (GDP).
