Reports from the first day of Israeli and US strikes on Iran are a predictable mix of claims and counterclaims.
In the real world, things are much less clear.
A big spread of “hundreds” of strikes across Iran was carried out by the US and Israel. This suggests that planning was intensive and was underway well before the strikes. There’s a long legacy of US conflict with Iran, and this is its worst manifestation yet.
Khamenei may be dead, or not. According to some reports, senior Iranian commanders were killed. This is standard practice. Eliminating command and control is canon doctrine. The next few days will show who’s in charge in Iran.
Russia isn’t able to do much, if anything at all, to help its ally. Russia and Iran are joined at the hip in Ukraine. Putin has yet again been sidelined. It’s highly unlikely that Russia will participate directly in combat or in much more than press releases.
China predicts that the “Israel-Iran conflict is unlikely to be contained”. That’s a very safe bet. China also expects a “strike and withdraw” posture from the US. That’s in line with previous US strikes, but if Israel continues to conduct its “Lion’s Roar” attacks, maybe not.
Iranian missile counterstrikes haven’t done any significant damage. The regime says it intends to deliver a “crushing” counterblow to the Israeli attacks. Technologically, Iran is well behind the eight ball in terms of capacity to penetrate US, Israeli, and regional defenses. Missile strikes can only have a percentile effect, and that percentage is likely to be low if the Iranians are using their known arsenal of antiques.
Military options are very limited. This type of attack is the only feasible option. A ground attack on Iran would be like Afghanistan cubed. It’s not even a good theoretical idea.
That’s hardly the whole story. The collateral spread is already apparent.
- The Gulf is likely to be closed indefinitely.
- Airlines are diverting from the region.
- Oil prices are expected to rise immediately.
- Disruption to Middle East trade and shipping will affect global markets.
- Iran’s client Yemeni agents have said they’ll start attacking shipping again.
This war could be unlike any other in the Middle East. Iran can definitely conduct regional attacks. It could be yet another endless Middle Eastern war, particularly if Iran can secure outside sources for supply.
The question has to be “What’s the objective?
Regime change? That’s a very difficult task. The Iranian regime is deeply entrenched. Opposition forces don’t seem organized or strong enough to conduct a revolution. The brutal response to recent protests made that obvious. Even the number of dead from those protests isn’t known. The cited very vague figures of somewhere between 7000 and 30,000 people aren’t exactly definitive.
Shutting down Iranian operations against Israel? Unlikely at best, naïve at worst. Iran’s proxy forces can source weapons from the global arms trade with Iranian support. Those sources are in no danger from a few strikes on Iran. The war against Israel could go up a notch.
Forcing Iran to negotiate its nuclear capability? There’s a level of absurdity in this one. The US said they’d “obliterated” Iran’s nukes with previous strikes. Then they started negotiations regarding those nukes. The Iranians were negotiating. If nothing else, they now have an excuse not to negotiate. Far worse is the very obvious fact that Iran can develop its capacity outside Iran and build an arsenal. Nobody’s going to be striking Russia, China, and maybe Pakistan.
Now the other questions:
Can Iran do anything about the strikes to hit Israel and the US?
Yes, it can. Iran’s international reach is global. Terror attacks, targeted strikes in the US, and global strikes at high-profile US and Israeli targets are very likely. Israel is a somewhat harder target, with intense security measures, but even the Israelis don’t pretend to be totally invulnerable.
How does either side win?
The US and Israel win by forcing Iran into a peace agreement. That could take years. Iran is unlikely to give up quickly or easily. They could lose a lot of prestige and influence if they back down too much.
Iran wins by conducting a credible, prolonged terror campaign. They don’t have anything like the assets to win a conventional war. They can do serious damage to the oil sector by maintaining the conflict.
What are the risks of expanding the war?
If this war translates into an anti-Islamic war, the risks are potentially extremely serious. All that’s needed is the perception of the West and Israel vs Islam. There’s an entire subcontinent full of jihadis and ex-jihadis. ISIS is still around. There’s a global network of possible catalysts for expansion.
This war is an extension of an endless war.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
