To get attention, there’s nothing quite like Putin talking about that snappy little conversation starter, World War 3. To do so while so obviously badly losing the war in Ukraine is even more sparkling and witty, you’d think.
Well, chuckle, chuckle. World War 3 is cropping up more and more in Russian rhetoric. The Russian foreign minister was talking about it a few days ago. The foreign minister also warned Ukraine against “provoking” World War 3. …So if you’re invaded by Russia, you’re the one doing the provocation?
Nobody’s impressed. Putin’s rhetoric is that of an old, clumsy, superpower making the same mistakes that destroyed it. The facts are telling a very different and completely unambiguous story. A clearly failed invasion and the collapsing economy don’t add up to Russia being in any position to make threats like those made by Putin.
That said – Nor does the history of the invasion indicate any noticeable Russian interest in reality. Russian gains in the east equate to a few villages and a small town at an incredibly high cost. To hold those places, they’ll have to take many more casualties. That level of losses really can’t go on forever. Russian military assets are being lost at a completely unsustainable rate.
Much like the nuclear babble, reports of barbaric treatment and abduction of hostage civilians also don’t seem to indicate any understanding of any consequences for Russia. Russia seems to believe it can literally get away with murder. Maybe they can do that inside Russia, but not elsewhere.
Maybe they think the threat of more civilian casualties will soften the international response. It can’t and it won’t. This is an old terrorist tactic, and it’s never worked. It will have the exact opposite effect. Nobody wants to negotiate with Russia on these terms. There’s an obvious, extremely high legal, military, political, and economic price to pay for these atrocities, and that price will be paid.
Widening the war zone won’t work
If threats against countries supporting Ukraine are absurd, widening the war zone is another massive failure waiting to happen. So far, mysterious explosions in Russia, Moldova, and elsewhere look so much like false flag operations.
Consider the likely outcome of Russia’s inept military spreading the joy and getting even more foreign fighters and support for Ukraine. It looks like they want to lose elsewhere too, not just in Ukraine.
Escalation is obviously expected in eastern Europe. Poland has issued a survival guide for a possible war as Russia cuts off gas and oil. Germany has said it will take a while to disengage from Russian energy. The net result is revenue shutdown for Russia. The overall trend is that Russia’s critical trade is shutting down, slowly. These aren’t short-term measures. Nobody’s expecting a quick resolution.
Nuclear war? Do tell.
The longer this war goes on, the worse it will get for Russia. The war has already unhinged Russian logic. Nobody expects rational behavior from Russia anymore. Nuclear war is by definition irrational, so what’s to be surprised about?
The fact that Russia seems to think a nuclear war somehow wouldn’t affect it is what’s new. The absolute certainty of national destruction is apparently not worthy of mention in this dreamy environment.
Russia is having a hard enough time managing a relatively small-scale conventional local war. Why would a real major nuclear war somehow be better? According to whom would it be better? Some ex-Soviet hack living at the bottom of a bottle of vodka? …Because that’s what it sounds like.
This casual. flippant talk of World War 3 is truly insane. Any Russian nuclear move will generate an immediate response. Nobody’s going to ignore anything that looks like preparation for a nuclear strike. If any serious nuclear threat is made, it will be taken seriously.
Putin is utterly out of his depth here. He wasn’t part of the nuclear diplomacy that prevented World War 3. He may or may not know how irrevocably final any wrong move with nukes can be. He could destroy Russia himself, simply by this rhetoric.
That’s likely to have permanent consequences for Russia. Putin seems to have forgotten how barbaric and vengeful this world can be. There would be nowhere to hide. The Altai Mountains and other “secret” plutocratic refuges can’t and won’t be safe.
The aftermath of a nuclear war would be more like the Mongol invasion of Russia. That invasion basically depopulated Muscovy and western Russia with bows and arrows.
The likely result will be an eternal silence. Think about it while you can.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
