The many falling idols of America now seem to include, above all, routine total ignorance or understanding of the interests of American allies and total lack of interest in America’s enemies. Never mind the Tomahawks. Trump’s insistence on a Russian “win” in Ukraine is antagonizing allies and making America look weak.
The bizarre global headlines regarding the recent Zelensky meeting with Trump make it clear how much of an incoherent mess American foreign policy has become. This meeting was even worse than the one in February, and at least equally counterproductive.
The Ukrainians have said from day one they won’t cede territory, and that they want the 2014 borders restored. They have absolutely no reason to even consider any compromise. They’re winning.
The military and geopolitical facts tell a very unambiguous story:
Military
The military situation has been tracked since day one. The current situation is obvious. Russian offensives have monotonously failed for years and continue to do so, even with North Korean “help”. Casualties on the Russian side are appalling.
The Russian army has taken extraordinary casualties and defeats far beyond any level of acceptance for modern military forces.
The vaunted bombardment of Ukraine is largely because they can’t do much else.
The Ukrainians are responding effectively to every Russian move, and in fact retaking territory.
The Russian position in Crimea is untenable, a total tactical and strategic liability.
Even the upkeep of Russian forces seems unsustainable. Logistics have been terrible since 2023.
Troop effectiveness is highly questionable. The forces being deployed haven’t even been effective enough to move 20km in any direction and hold ground.
Tactical agility and mobility are bordering on absurd. Russian troops are using mules, quad bikes, and pickup trucks due to a lack of dedicated military transport.
On what basis is Russia “winning” anything at all? This war is turning into one of the worst, most prolonged defeats of a major army in history.
Geopolitical
This geopolitical position must and will change.
On whatever absurd basis, Trump has taken a unilaterally pro-Russian and anti-Ukrainian stance. This is in diametric opposition to the new European stance, which is anti-Russian and pro-Ukrainian.
Last time this sort of catastrophic failure happened, the Soviet Union collapsed. The Afghanistan war was lost, and the USSR was broke, as Russia now seems to be becoming. The entire Soviet economy broke down suddenly and permanently.
Russian separatists are gnawing at the fringes of the Russian Federation. A long history of various groups indicates some level of resistance inside Russia. The Moscow Times also ran a story on Russia banning a “non-existent anti-Russian separatist movement”. Anyone’s guess what that means in practice.
Nor is the administration’s constantly dismissive view of Ukraine in line with any known reality. Ukraine isn’t some bit player. The Ukrainians are now front and center in global realpolitik. Ukraine has many friends and allies around the world.
The really strange thing is this.
There is absolutely no direct or indirect current or future benefit to the US in promoting Russian demands.
The world has had enough of drama queens.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
