There is never anything simple or straightforward about Russian history or politics. The furious “march on Moscow” and the rhetoric of the last 48 hours have vanished in a strange deal conducted out of thin air. Prigozhin goes to Belarus and Wagner returns to the camps.
That suddenly solves everything.
How does it solve anything? Prigozhin spent the last two days complaining about a Russian attack on his troops which killed “huge numbers” of Wagner mercenaries. That could well have been staged. There are plenty of spare body parts around in the region.
Prigozhin was furious, at least in public. He said they wanted to disband Wagner. He’s been verbally attacking the Russian Ministry of Defense for months. His troops took Rostov in a few hours. They have now returned to field camps, locations unspecified.
Putin responded in kind to the “mutiny” and accused Prigozhin of treason. The FSB called for Prigozhin’s arrest. That was rather odd because if anyone was going to arrest him, it would have had to be them. It seemed things were about to come to a head. An actual civil war seemed quite likely.
…Then Guest Contestant Lukashenko steps in and all is well? How? Prigozhin says he agreed to this deal to prevent bloodshed. It’s a bit like a hyena asking for a salad. The Wagner Group is famous for causing bloodshed, not preventing it.
Belarus just happens to be the conveniently located theme park that is taking delivery of Russian nuclear missiles. It’s slated to become part of Russia again at some point. Belarussian fighters are fighting the Russians in Ukraine. Russian troops were also sent to Belarus recently.
Which leads to a pretty obvious question – What’s really happening in Russia?
A few pointers:
- Putin was almost at actual war with his one and only successful military commander.
- Putin’s own position is not secure, according to observers. He has to establish control and his own credibility. For the period of the “mutiny” he was just issuing statements, not conducting countermeasures. This is very much out of character, and nothing like his public image.
- Nobody got assassinated, which is also most unusual.
- Wagner forces have left Ukraine just as the Ukrainian counteroffensive begins.
- The Wagner troops are severely worn and torn after months of heavy fighting.
- The Russian army is on full defensive.
- The Russian campaign in Ukraine has failed disastrously and is getting worse. They need to get out.
- Wagner troops were able to move around with ease behind Russian lines with no opposition worth reporting.
- Wagner “took” Rostov, a fairly sizeable city, with ease and trundled to within 200km of Moscow without any opposition at all.
- Lukashenko doesn’t have the clout to turn on a light switch in Russia.
- Russia publicized the “mutiny” on state broadcasts and social media. It’s not often any Russian government admits to any problems. Why the sudden PR campaign for Prigozhin?
- All this played out in 48 hours.
- How believable is any of this? A charade is one description.
A few more peculiar issues:
- Putin could have used the “mutiny” or something like it as an excuse to redeploy a lot of troops back to Russia and rebuild internal security without actually admitting defeat. He’s not doing that.
- A few weeks ago, anti-Putin forces took areas around Belgorod and forced a Russian military response. That’s now a non-topic in the news. This just emphasizes the inherent instability in Russia before the Wagner mutiny.
- Wagner can be seen to be defused as a risk with any supposed deal, whether any of this is real or not.
- Prigozhin must have got something out of this deal, but what?
- Belarus is progressively filling up with Russian troops, probably meaning backup for the projected Russian annexation or “reunification” as they call it.
- Wagner can back up any Russian moves in Belarus or a new front against Ukraine to take the pressure off the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
- There are many other major players in Russia. Who else is involved? Kremlin factions? The organized crime groups which control a lot of oil and black market assets? These people don’t play charades. They don’t like anything that disrupts business, either.
- The much-disaffected, utterly humiliated and demoralized Russian army may not back Putin.
It just can’t be this simple. This complex pantomime indicates a lot of internal forces in play. Everything is still up in the air. Russia is falling to bits. The only question now is in what way it falls to bits.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
