The long and verbosely windswept discussion about supplying Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine seems to be gelling into a solid proposal. So far, there’s more bluster than information from both the US and Russia.
Current information is that Trump sees the missiles as leverage for peace negotiations. The Russians see the Tomahawks as a “red line” and as escalation. That’s particularly if the Tomahawks are used on Russian soil. Russian soil seems to be wherever the Russians want to say it’s Russian soil.
Not much of this verbosity is even theoretically being related to the actual situation on the ground. Various Russian offensives this year have stalled, vanished, or simply lost coverage as they routinely fail.
It’s quite true that not since World War One has nearly four years of fighting achieved so little at such a staggering cost. The war is turgid with failure on the part of the Russians, indecision on the part of the West, and sheer guts on the part of the Ukrainians.
The total lack of significant Russian military successes of any kind is rarely a subject for discussion, even among online bots and trolls. The war that was supposed to take two weeks is now close to notching up its fourth anniversary.
That’s the situation without the Tomahawks. The question is whether they can make a big difference. The short answer is yes. The tactical level, and probably at the strategic level, over time. They’re not Ukraine’s only strike option, but they’re flexible, effective, and accurate to 5 metres. They can also hit moving targets.
The current Block 5 Tomahawks are the current generation of a well-proven combat system. They come with a fully grown support system and logistics. These are multi-targeting, in-flight programmable high-yield missiles, and would put a significant strain on Russia’s somewhat lethargic and occasionally inept air defences.
The Tomahawks aren’t the same thing as Russia’s endless flailing away at Ukraine with a menagerie of missiles. If the Russians hit anything at all, it makes headlines. The Tomahawks just won’t miss.
This is pure qualitative fire superiority at its most unambiguous. It’s the difference between a pro sniper and someone blazing away with a shotgun. This is not a competition Russia can claim to win, or even really participate effectively.
The likely consequences of a deployment of Tomahawks will be to turn the Russian front line and support logistics into a shooting gallery. The degree of difficulty for Russian forces will go up considerably, almost immediately.
Can Tomahawks be countered? Yes, in theory, but these Tomahawks are designed to match countermeasures. The point here is they’re a very demanding type of target that must be effectively countered, or they can go on the rampage. They can’t be ignored because they are a genuine, serious threat to anything within range.
At some point, Russia must reevaluate. The Tomahawks could make that happen.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
