The much publicized and remarkably lacking in detail US airstrikes on Iran are likely to lead to a very long, drawn-out global mess. Taken on face value, the US must have delivered a final knockout blow to nefarious Iranian nuclear ambitions.
That’s quite unlikely.
Even if you assume the US knocked out fortified Iranian nuclear facilities 90 metres underground, The result doesn’t look good for the short or long term. This is just the beginning.
Trump had previously given various ultimatums to Iran on a two week timeframe.
He demanded “surrender” and barely even got a response. He threatened the Iranian president, who simply appointed a successor. In the absence of any real achievement, he launched airstrikes.
Trump’s penchant for creating conflict wherever he goes is seriously misplaced here. It won’t and can’t work.
The situation has been misread badly on multiple levels:
If this is an attempt to tap American patriotism to counter disastrous polls, it’s likely to have a short shelf life. Trump will now be held directly responsible for whatever does or doesn’t happen. Lack of results will be seen as a defeat.
Support from Western allies is likely to be muted and definitely minimal. Most Western countries were calling for de-escalation.
Given Trump’s constant ill-informed and incredibly crass denigration of US allies, it’s likely that not much cooperation will be forthcoming.
Strategically and in military terms, the situation is worse:
Iran is a large international player with multiple friends and allies who can deliver meaningful support. Chinese cargo planes were seen arriving in Iran last week, creating a mystery about what they were doing, or even if they exist.
Russia is directly linked to Iran by defense agreements and some wholesome rhetoric. Neither country needs to be directly involved. This is a proxy war they can’t lose, and the US can’t win.
Iran has far more global strike capacity than Al Qaeda did in 2001 or ISIS in the 2010s. America is not even theoretically invulnerable to low-tech attacks.
Any degree of US military involvement will require long-term allocation of resources. That will be expensive, and the military objectives aren’t at all clear. The fatal expression “Boots on the ground” would be the best indicator of “no ideas” in any military scenario.
Most of America’s worst and most utterly futile military situations have related to unconventional warfare. To fight America, Iran has no option but to use unconventional means. Their flying fossils are no real threat to US systems. The default response must be guerrilla warfare on a global scale. That could go on for decades.
If this is “World War 3 by other means”, it’ll be hideous. At the very least, you can expect another couple of decades of murderous strikes on anyone and anything like the post-9/11 world. Middle Eastern wars tend to just get worse. Nothing will actually be achieved. The Middle East will continue to be a hellhole. The Palestinians will never have a state, and Israel will never have peace.
It’s not just the US getting drawn into the endless Middle East madness. The world will be drawn in, directly or otherwise.
In the name of Trump?
The hell you say.
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this Op-Ed are those of the author. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the Digital Journal or its members.
